The memory market is seeing a sharp surge, fueled by rising contract prices since the second quarter and Samsung Electronics' move to phase out DDR4 modules, as revealed in communications with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). This shift has sparked a significant jump in spot market prices, with DDR4 modules leading the charge. Despite lingering concerns over potential tariff hikes, constrained supply from upstream manufacturers and aggressive stockpiling by buyers have helped sustain the upward momentum in prices.
April 2025 spot prices for memory (US$)
Source: Various manufacturers; compiled by DIGITIMES, April 2025
DRAM industry pivots to advanced nodes
Major DRAM manufacturers are ramping up plans to scale back production using older processes. Samsung, for example, is set to aggressively expand its 1a/1b-nanometer production in 2025, phasing out modules that rely on 1y and 1z-nanometer DRAM chips. This strategic shift has quickly driven price adjustments in the spot market.
While other DRAM makers can still offer comparable products, the longer-term trend is clear: industry giants are pivoting resources toward DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), transforming what was once a cautious market into one that's increasingly dynamic.
Persistent demand for cost-effective DDR4
As OEMs shift new notebook models to DDR5, demand for DDR4 remains strong in value-focused product segments, fueling a surge in order inquiries and driving market activity. Some distributors have begun stockpiling early to ensure stable inventory levels. Data from April's spot market shows DDR5 price increases slowing to about 8% from March, with growth cooling or slightly declining in recent weeks.
This softening is largely attributed to earlier sharp price hikes and disruptions caused by export restrictions on Nvidia's H20 chips to China, adding volatility to the market.
In contrast, DDR4 prices have seen robust growth, with DDR4 16GB modules leading the charge. Products like 2Gx8 and 1Gx16 configurations saw monthly gains of 11% to 14%, marking the largest single-month increase since late 2024's prolonged price stagnation. Meanwhile, DDR3 4GB, also nearing its end-of-life phase, could face supply shortages as soon as this summer. However, high inventory levels and the ongoing shift to DDR4 in end applications have kept its price growth more modest, at around 4% to 5%.
Taiwanese firms emerge as DDR4 market stabilizers
As major global manufacturers reduce their DDR4 production capacity, Taiwanese memory companies are increasing their involvement in this market segment. Winbond is adjusting its product strategy in early 2025 by shifting its focus from DDR3 to DDR4, with plans for significant shipments beginning in the second half of the year.
The company's Kaohsiung facility currently operates primarily using a 20nm process, and it intends to start production on a new 16nm line by late 2025. This updated process is expected to support 8GB products and improve bit output per wafer by 20% to 30%.
Nanya Technology has commenced mass production of 8GB DDR4 and 16GB DDR5 using its 1B-nanometer process, with 1B process wafer inputs projected to account for one-third of capacity by early in the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, Nanya will begin sampling DDR5 products with transmission speeds of 6400 MT/s in the same quarter.
NAND faces headwinds amid price ceiling pressures
Flash wafer prices continued to climb in April, with 512GB TLC reaching around US$2.76, reflecting a 6% increase from March. However, 1Tb QLC prices, which briefly spiked to US$5 in early April, eased back to US$4.95 by the end of the month. Sources within the Chinese industry point to a standoff between mobile brand manufacturers and NAND producers, compounded by weaker-than-expected demand for terminal stockpiling, making it more difficult to sustain NAND price increases.
According to China Flash Market (CFM) research, NAND manufacturers' production cuts have yielded limited results, with supply still outpacing demand, particularly for high-capacity universal flash storage (UFS). Looking ahead, NAND producers may further throttle output to safeguard profit margins, a move that could reshape supply dynamics in the coming quarters.
Article edited by Jack Wu
