The ongoing DRAM shortage is intensifying as memory module manufacturers suspend consumer DRAM price quotes during China's National Day holiday, signaling a sharp rise in spot market prices. Over the past week, DDR4 DRAM prices have surged more than 10%, while DDR5 16GB modules increased by about 8%. Despite weak end-user demand, major Taiwanese memory module suppliers, including Adata, Team Group, and Apacer, have all paused quoting prices, awaiting clearer signals of further hikes after the holiday.
This temporary suspension has reportedly triggered a chain reaction across the industry. Adata led the move last week by halting quotes mainly for the most severely short-supplied DDR4 and DDR5 products, while NAND flash and SSD pricing remained active. Following suit, Team Group and Apacer also stopped providing quotes, whereas industrial-focused vendors like Transcend and Innodisk have maintained their pricing strategies.
Industry insiders explain that once some competitors pause pricing, market pressure quickly shifts to others, causing a flood of consumer inquiries that prompt additional players to adopt a passive stance, resulting in a broader short-term freeze on price quotations.
Holiday period exacerbates price surge
Since late September, DDR5 16Gb spot prices have climbed 8.5%, with DDR4 16Gb rising 12.4%. However, during the Chinese holiday period, when supply channels and buyers are largely inactive, limited market information contrasts with persistent order demand, pushing spot prices sharply higher.
Experts predict that after the Chinese holiday ends and Taiwan enters its own break, normal cross-strait trade will resume amid significantly elevated price levels. Sellers may then restrict or selectively quote prices to avoid rapidly depleting low-cost inventory, indicating substantial room remains for future price increases.
Cloud demand drives shortages and price momentum
Supply chain sources identify cloud service providers (CSPs) as key drivers behind recent memory price surges. Although concerns over an AI server order bubble had previously loomed, actual CSP procurement has caused significant shortages beyond expectations. Leading chipmakers Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron have responded with tight supply and selective order fulfillment policies, sustaining upward price momentum into 2026.
DDR5 becomes the new growth engine
Besides continued DDR4 scarcity fueling fourth quarter price gains, Micron's latest October DDR5 quotes have sparked strong rallies, with mainstream DDR5-5600 prices jumping approximately 12-28%. While Samsung's pricing is pending, industry estimates suggest similar trends, marking a shift from initial DDR4-driven hikes to robust DDR5 price growth.
Contract prices lag behind soaring spot market
Though some OEM and industrial customers struggle with escalating costs, memory sector analysts believe competitive pressures will force purchases despite higher prices. Limited supply means those who delay buying risk losing out, with monthly price increases expected to push bill of materials (BOM) costs above rivals' levels.
Contract price increases lag far behind spot market rises. The industry broadly agrees on significant DRAM and flash price hikes, but insiders admit contract prices no longer reflect reality, as customers often cannot secure contracted volumes due to extremely tight production capacity. Spot prices now dominate market dynamics and foreshadow next quarter's contract pricing behavior.
Taiwanese memory makers post strong Q3 results
Taiwanese memory maker Winbond reported consolidated revenue of NT$7.92 billion (approx. US$259.5 million) in September, up 12.9% month-over-month and 9.52% year-over-year; third-quarter revenue reached NT$21.77 billion, a nearly three-year high.
Industrial memory module supplier Innodisk posted September revenue of NT$1.37 billion, soaring 92.26% year-over-year and lifting third-quarter revenue to a record NT$3.81 billion. While some memory module companies have yet to release results, the market expects the third quarter to deliver strong revenue and profit growth across the supply chain, supported by rising average selling prices (ASP) that should sustain high levels into the fourth quarter.
Article translated by Charlene Chen and edited by Jack Wu
