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SK Hynix may lose HBM crown by 2026 as rivals trigger price showdown

Amy Fan, Taipei; Charlene Chen, DIGITIMES Asia 0

Credit: AFP

Goldman Sachs recently released a striking report on the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, stating that regardless of forecasting scenarios, SK Hynix's monopoly over HBM will eventually come to an end.

The Korea Economic Daily cited Goldman Sachs' report, highlighting that Samsung Electronics is expected to adopt a "low-price strategy" in 2026 to capture the HBM market, signaling an emerging outlook of oversupply in HBM.

Goldman Sachs further pointed out that due to intensified market competition, HBM prices are projected to decline by 10% in 2026. The pricing power for HBM will shift from manufacturers to customers, such as Nvidia. This suggests that SK Hynix, which currently holds approximately 80-90% of Nvidia's HBM orders, is approaching the end of its dominant era.

Moreover, Goldman Sachs noted that even if Samsung experiences delivery delays to Nvidia, HBM prices will still fall. This is because Nvidia might leverage Micron, which has already passed quality verification, as bargaining power to pressure SK Hynix into lowering prices.

Notably, Goldman Sachs outlined three future scenarios in the report.

First, a "base" scenario where Samsung delays deliveries to Nvidia by one to two quarters; second, a scenario where Samsung successfully passes validation and mass-produces HBM4 by the end of 2025; and finally, a "best-case" scenario where Samsung fails HBM4 validation and SK Hynix continues its dominance.

However, the report implies that regardless of any forecasted scenario, a decline in HBM prices is inevitable. Samsung is likely to offer more attractive pricing to increase supply to Nvidia, forcing SK Hynix to defend its position through price cuts.

The report also stated that whether or not Samsung passes Nvidia's quality verification, the HBM market will enter an oversupply phase in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects fierce price competition to erupt as Samsung and Micron join the fray.

On another front, major IT companies including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are expanding their development of AI chips, which could sustain the short-term momentum of the HBM boom.

Article edited by Jack Wu