From TSMC to SK hynix, every Q3 2025 earnings call delivered the same sobering message, the AI build-out is being throttled by three physical choke points that no amount of 2025 capex can fix fast enough. Leading-edge foundry, HBM memory, and advanced packaging are all sold out, not just for next quarter, but for the next three to five years. Here’s exactly where the wall is.
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM): The New Kingmaker
HBM has become the single most important component in the AI hardware stack and the scarcest. It’s no longer something you buy. It is something you reserve 18–24 months in advance and hope your allocation sticks.
Reading the Q3 reports, Industry leaders have been blunt:
SK hynix CFO Kim Jae-joon: "We have already sold out our entire 2026 HBM supply… supply expected to remain tight compared to demand into 2027."
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra: "Our HBM capacity for calendar 2025 and 2026 is fully booked."
Samsung Memory: "Customers' demand for next year will exceed our supply, even considering our investment and capacity expansion plan."
The consequences are cascading across the industry.The ripple effects are hitting the whole industry. Next-gen platforms like Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, AMD MI400, and everything coming after are now stuck behind memory limits. GPU and AI server lead times have stretched to 12–18 months, BOM costs are climbing, and procurement teams are buried in broker spreadsheets.
Even worse, HBM expansion is eating into conventional DRAM. DDR5, LPDDR5, and even older DRAM lines are getting squeezed, setting up surprise shortages in laptops, smartphones, and cars through 2026.HBM has officially become the choke point for the entire AI sector.
CoWoS Advanced Packaging: The Real Limit on GPU Supply
You can have perfect 3 nm chiplets and pristine HBM stacks but without a CoWoS slot, you're holding an extremely expensive paperweight.
TSMC’s CoWoS-L/S/R processes are what bind chiplets and HBM cubes using massive interposers and through-silicon vias. That assembly step, not silicon, is now the single most critical governor on AI GPU output.
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei: "Our CoWoS capacity is very tight and remains sold out through 2025 and into 2026."
NVIDIA CEO Jenson Huang: "CoWoS assembly capacity is oversubscribed through at least mid-2026," directly delaying volume Blackwell Ultra ramps.
TSMC is expanding CoWoS capacity by roughly 60% in 2025 and 50% in 2026, but every new cleanroom module is spoken for long before it opens. AMD, Broadcom, Google, Amazon, Meta, everyone is fighting over the same finite packaging slots.
Leading-Edge Foundry (3 nm/2 nm): Locked Up Until Late 2020s
If you didn't secure N3E or N2 production capacity back in 2023, you're effectively locked out.
TSMC has been explicit:
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei: "Frontend and backend capacity for leading-edge nodes is extremely tight… Customers' demand for the next year will exceed our supply, even considering our investment and capacity expansion plan."
Apple consumed the bulk of N3 capacity for 2024–2025. What remained was divided among NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and a handful of hyperscalers. TSMC's upcoming 2 nm fabs in Arizona and Kaohsiung won't reach meaningful output until late 2026 or early 2027, and much of that is already pre-allocated.
Samsung's GAA roadmap is still trailing on yield and power efficiency, leaving nearly the entire industry dependent on a single geographic region.
For any AI startup or any new chip program that didn't book capacity during the 2023–2024 scramble, the earliest possible tape-out now lands around 2028–2029.
The Zero-Slack Era: 2026–2027 Demand Already 30–50% Above Planned Supply
The most chilling part? Every CEO said the same thing, almost word-for-word:
TSMC: "We are working very hard to narrow the gap between demand and supply."
SK hynix, Micron, Samsung, Intel, NVIDIA-all echoed that even after $200 billion+ of collective capex, supply will still fall 20–50% short of demand in 2026 and 2027.
If you are tired of hearing "fully booked through 2027" and watching your roadmaps slip quarter after quarter, talk to Fusion Worldwide. We specializes in AI ICs procurement, providing real-time visibility into ICs availability across all major manufacturers. Our E-commerce platform delivers instant availability checking, automated quote management, and rapid fulfillment capabilities that help procurement teams secure critical storage components even in constrained markets.
Don’t wait for the next earnings call to tell you the gap got worse. Get Out In Front, Move now.
(Article Sponsored by Alan Chew, Global Director of Strategic Accounts, Fusion Worldwide, Singapore)
