The ASP for DRAM memory is set to start falling in the fourth quarter and continue its downward trend in 2019, while that for NAND flash chips will also decrease. ASPs for both memory products are expected to decline by over 15% in 2019, according to DRAMeXchange.
DRAM contract prices started showing their weakness in the third quarter of 2018, when prices registered only 1-2% sequential growth despite the period being the traditional peak season, DRAMeXchange indicated. Prices are set to fall 5% or more sequentially in the fourth quarter, ending nine straight quarters of growth, DRAMeXchange said.
NAND flash contract prices, which dropped around 10% sequentially in the third quarter, will fall another 10-15% in the fourth quarter, DRAMeXchange noted. Contract prices of 3D TLC NAND chips in the channel market are likely to register a more than 15% decrease in the fourth quarter.
The DRAM market will remain oversupplied in 2019 with the memory ASP to drop by 15-20% on year, according to DRAMeXchange. The industry will see its overall bit output increase by nearly 22% in 2019, thanks largely to mature 1X/1Ynm process production yields, it said.
DRAM price declines may be steeper in 2019 if demand weakens for servers and smartphones, DRAMeXchange also warned.
NAND flash ASPs are forecast to decline by 25-30% in 2019, due to sluggish demand for consumer electronics coupled with suppliers' increased 3D NAND production capacity on yield rate improvement, DRAMeXchange indicated.