As more EV models are available and prices decrease, EV sales have grown notably in recent years. However, the growth rate will slow in 2024, making one wonder whether the "golden cross" between EV and Internal Combustion Engine vehicle (ICE) sales will arrive on time.
According to Taiwanese automotive suppliers who have become part of BYD's supply chain, the golden cross, when EV sales surpass those of ICE cars, is said to occur in 2025, 2027, 2030, or 2035. The sweet spots in vehicle prices are critical to this milestone. However, while EV prices fluctuate with the price war, the sales volume seems to have lost momentum.
From a consumer perspective, EVs are still considered expensive and the availability of charging infrastructure remains a challenge. For automakers, developing EVs requires substantial capital, with sales often being uncertain. Therefore, many OEMs have worked on battery EVs, hybrid EVs, and ICE cars simultaneously.
Carmakers like Ford and General Motors have been shifting their focus to HEVs, and Hyundai, Kia, and Volkswagen have followed suit. Sources said that due to multiple external factors, EVs will naturally exceed ICE vehicles in sales volume later than initially projected. The exact timing of this shift remains unknown.
Many countries around the world will hold general elections this year. Other uncertainties include regional conflicts and disruption in maritime transport. The situation will affect companies' product development plans. They will likely be more selective about customers and intend to develop products that can apply to ICE cars, HEVs, and BEVs.
Suppliers said as legacy automakers revise their EV strategies, the Chinese EV market is the only one that maintains its momentum. Some big car companies even said they could occupy a specific component's production capacity. However, sources said China-made EVs have yet to reach the sales target in overseas markets. Domestic inventory has also started to increase. Whether entering the Chinese EV supply chain will be beneficial is worth consideration.
Article translated by Peng Chen
