Semiconductor sales to rise at 7% CAGR through 2026, says IC Insights

Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei 0


Total semiconductor sales are forecast to rise 11% in 2022, following a 25% surge in 2021 and an 11% increase in 2020, according to the market research group IC Insights. If achieved, it would mark the first time since 1993-1995 that the semiconductor market has enjoyed three consecutive years of double-digit growth.

From 2016-2021, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the semiconductor market was 11%. That period included a big surge in DRAM and flash memory markets in 2017 and 2018 and strong post-COVID recovery in 2020 and 2021, IC Insights indicated.

With the semiconductor industry being cyclical, ongoing annual double-digit gains are unsustainable, IC Insights believe. IC Insights expects total semiconductor sales to rise over the next five years at a more moderate CAGR of 7.1%.

The aggregate of opto, sensor, and discrete categories is expected to rise at a CAGR of 8.0% for 2021-2026, IC Insights indicated. CAGRs among major semiconductor product categories are forecast to range from a high of 12.3% for sensors/actuators to 3.1% for discretes.

The sensor/actuator market (US$24.3 billion forecast in 2022) represents the smallest major product segment within the semiconductor market, accounting for less than 4% of sales, IC Insights said. However, throughout the forecast period, sensor sales are expected to increase significantly in automobiles, cellphones, and portable and wearable systems (e.g., smartwatches and fitness/activity trackers). In addition, more systems are using multiple sensors and sensor fusion software for multi-dimensional measurements to support greater machine intelligence and the ability to recognize movement, know locations, and monitor changes in the surrounding environment.

The logic IC market is forecast to post a CAGR of 7.9% through 2026, according to IC Insights. The logic IC market has performed very well in recent years, with automotive and industrial devices serving as strong drivers for overall growth in this segment.