The foldable phone market is finally hitting its stride. After years of false starts and skeptical consumers, the segment is experiencing genuine momentum. Counterpoint Research projects US shipments will surge nearly 68% year-over-year in 2025, while China's annual volume is closing in on 10 million units—a threshold that signals the category has moved beyond experimental territory.
Yet the real catalyst may still be waiting in the wings. Apple's long-rumored foldable iPhone, expected as early as 2026, could be the inflection point the industry has been waiting for. Analysts believe the launch won't just boost numbers—it could fundamentally reshape consumer expectations and cement foldables as the next evolution in premium smartphones.
The stakes are higher than simply releasing another device. Industry watchers are betting Apple will do what it does best: arrive late but transform the game entirely. Can the company bring its signature design philosophy and ecosystem mastery to a form factor that has struggled to move beyond novelty? The answer could determine whether foldables become the future of mobile computing or remain a premium curiosity.
Retailers point out that Samsung Electronics has led the foldable trend for seven years, followed by brands such as Google, Motorola, Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Honor. However, demand growth has fallen short of expectations due to limited user familiarity, durability concerns over hinges and flexible screens, and weaker specifications in areas like battery endurance and camera quality compared to traditional flagship phones.
Apple's investment in foldable development has revived optimism, with some forecasts suggesting its market influence could push global shipments beyond 30 million units by 2027.
Industry insiders note that although the iPhone has been on the market for 17 years, Apple has never competed purely on hardware specifications. Its strength lies in timing and execution. A foldable iPhone would validate the entire segment and signal that the supply chain has matured, while driving economies of scale, reducing costs, boosting consumer adoption, and encouraging third-party developers to build foldable-optimized content and applications.
Challenges remain. Apple must resolve visible crease issues on inner screens, potential long-term lamination flaws, and develop a pricing strategy that convinces buyers its foldable offers better value than owning both a standard iPhone and an iPad.
Ultimately, expectations extend far beyond the act of folding. Apple's success will depend on how well it innovates in user value, ecosystem integration, and business models. The foldable iPhone will be judged not by how it bends, but by how it changes the market.
Article edited by Jerry Chen
