DIGITIMES Research analyst Eric Chen notes that process scaling has been the core driver of Moore's Law in semiconductors. However, with short-channel effects emerging, the three leading foundries have gradually shifted from FinFET to GAAFET. Although Samsung Electronics was the first to introduce a GAAFET process in 2022, it was not until the mass production of SF3 in 2025 that it reached a true milestone.
The 2nm battleground emerges
With AI and other emerging applications fueling progress in advanced semiconductor processes, the second half of 2025 will see TSMC, Samsung, and Intel enter mass production of their respective 2nm technologies. This marks the official start of the 2nm race among the three major players, with yield rates remaining the decisive factor for customer adoption. Chen expects TSMC to maintain a lead in 2nm yield performance, securing the majority of chip orders and extending its dominance in advanced nodes at least through 2028.
Advanced packaging fills the performance gap
However, the marginal benefits of advanced processes for chip performance are gradually diminishing. To break through this bottleneck, advanced packaging has become a critical path forward. Chen observed that 2.5D/3D packaging is enhancing performance by expanding the number of components and modules integrated through interposers. Meanwhile, innovations in substrate materials, optical communication technologies, and other packaging approaches such as FOPLP have all emerged as key development directions.
AI drives the next wave
Looking ahead, AI will continue to drive the evolution of semiconductor technologies. The first wave of chip demand was led by cloud AI, which in recent years has become a major growth engine for the industry, supported by the combination of 5/4nm processes and advanced packaging. As AI applications accelerate their rollout, edge AI has now become the second major growth arena, with semiconductor players actively investing in this field.
Trump 2.0 reshapes the global landscape
Notably, semiconductors remain deeply entangled with geopolitics. In the Trump 2.0 era, advanced semiconductor manufacturing has been regarded as a symbol of technological sovereignty. Chen noted that while the US once led in advanced semiconductor processes, it has now fallen behind, just as China's supply chain has rapidly caught up in recent years.
As a result, the US has elevated full-chain mastery of semiconductor technologies to the level of a national security priority. On this basis, both advanced processes and advanced packaging will be given high strategic importance by the US. Meanwhile, with growing government intervention, the global semiconductor supply chain is expected to undergo even more significant structural adjustments.
Article edited by Jerry Chen
