Samsung Electronics and Vivo's recent foldable smartphone launches have rekindled interest in a segment that had lost momentum. Yet supply chain executives view these 2025 releases as mere warm-ups before Apple's anticipated 2026 debut in the foldable sector, which they expect will trigger genuine market competition.
The foldable smartphone market hit its first quarterly decline in the third quarter of 2024, with global shipments managing only 3% growth for the full year. Industry forecasts point to single-digit declines in 2025, marking the category's first year of negative growth.
High prices, durability concerns, and longer replacement cycles have dampened demand. Production costs keep retail prices elevated, creating adoption barriers, while consumer worries about screen creasing persist despite technological improvements. Smartphone users are also holding onto devices longer, reducing upgrade frequency.
Samsung dominates with roughly 9 million annual shipments, followed by Huawei Technologies at 4 million to 5 million units. Samsung Display continues as Samsung's panel supplier, with inventory levels for new models remaining flat compared to previous generations.
Apple's foldable iPhone is expected to launch in the second half of 2026, likely debuting in autumn before reaching stores in early 2027. The device may feature a book-style horizontal fold with a 7.8-inch internal screen and a 5.5-inch external display.
Samsung Display is positioned as the exclusive OLED panel supplier for Apple's initial foldable model, with production estimates of 5 million to 6 million units. Analysts project a price between US$2,000 and US$2,500, though strong demand from Apple's customer base is anticipated despite the premium cost.
A second-generation foldable iPhone may follow in 2027, with Samsung Display, LG Display, and BOE Technology Group competing for panel contracts.
Article edited by Jack Wu
