Global notebook shipments are likely to expand by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2023 to 2028, according to DIGITIMES Research's latest figures from its 5-year forecast report on the global notebook market. In 2024, the shipment growth will likely reach 4.7%, driven by the easing of inflation and the introduction of new products, marking the end of a two-year decline.
In 2025, due to the economy entering a new phase of expansion, overall shipments are expected to grow by 6%, making it the year with the highest growth rate over the next five years. In 2027, a slight contraction is likely, and Korean panel makers will gradually increase their flexible OLED production capacity, with Apple's increased adoption of such panels, the figures show.
Regarding notebook panel technologies, in 2023, due to poor market conditions and brand efforts to clear inventory, the share of affordable traditional amorphous Silicon (a-Si) panels is expected to increase to 76.7%. However, its share will likely decrease in the following years as it gets replaced by other advanced display technologies.
Although brands like Asustek Computer and Samsung Electronics, which previously voiced support for rigid OLED panels, are unlikely to adopt such models widely due to cost and quality issues. However, the share of flexible OLED panels will increase significantly after Korean panel makers expand their 8G flexible OLED production capacity by 2026.
In 2023, the share of notebooks built using Arm-based processors will likely decrease rather than increase because Apple, which adopts in-house designed Arm-based CPUs for most of its notebook lineups, is expected to experience a significant decline in shipments in 2023 as the US brand vendor plans to transit to CPUs built by a 3nm node at TSMC for performance upgrading in 2024. Additionally, the introduction of Qualcomm's self-developed Oryon-based CPUs is expected to increase its market share. However, it is projected that Arm-based notebook shipments will continue to grow to over 27 million units in 2026.
In 2024, major brands will likely see shipment growth compared to 2023. Specifically, Apple and Dell will probably benefit from a more noticeable recovery in the high-end consumer and commercial market segments, leading to improved sales performance.