Worldwide notebook shipments are forecast to decrease only 12.9% sequentially in the first quarter of 2019 as vendors are still seeing some unfulfilled demand created by the CPU shortages. The CPU shortage gap is also expected to shrink to below one million units in the low season.The shipments slipped 0.3% sequentially and 3% on year in the fourth quarter of 2018, Digitimes Research's number showed.Hewlett-Packard's (HP) shipments are expected to decline dramatically in the first quarter of 2019 as the company had prepared extra inventory during the previous quarter to brace for the possible impacts from US-China trade tensions and CPU shortages. Lenovo also has seen weak results in the first quarter due to the trade tensions and fierce competition from Huawei and Xiaomi in its home market.Dell will see the smallest sequential decline among the top-tier vendors in the first quarter as the enterprise sector, the vendor's main market, is usually less affected by seasonality. Apple will see better performance than that of the same period a year ago in first-quarter 2019, thanks to strong demand for its new MacBook Air.Asustek will see a sharp sequential drop in first-quarter shipments due to its business reorganization.As for Taiwan-based ODMs, Compal Electronics and Wistron will see their shipment shares rise in the first quarter of 2019 due to increases in orders from Dell.

Because of Intel CPU shortages and the US-China trade tensions, worldwide all-in-one (AIO) PC shipments in 2018 slipped slightly from a year ago, according to Digitimes Research.As the uncertainties created by the trade tensions are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, most AIO PC vendors have become conservative about their shipments in 2019 with Digitimes Research expecting overall AIO PC shipments in 2019 to stay at about the same level as that in 2018.Of the worldwide top-4 AIO PC brands (Lenovo, Apple, HP and Dell), Dell had the strongest shipment growth in 2018.Dell's AIO PC shipments are expected to continue enjoying a slight increase in 2019 as the company will continue aggressively pushing shipments, while Micro-Star International (MSI) will have the strongest shipment growth in the year thanks to the contribution from its gaming models.On the manufacturing front, the third-place maker Compal Electronics and fourth-place Pegatron both enjoyed shipment growths in 2018, narrowing the between them and the top-2, Quanta Computer and Wistron. For 2019, the top-3 makers will all see on-year shipment declines.

Shadoworks Studio, founded in 2016 to develop VR and AR solutions, will focus its business on education, entertainment and industry applications in 2019, according to company chairman Andy Peng.In terms of education, such segments as cultural experience and simulation experience are what Shadoworks is actively tapping into, Peng said, adding that his company has teamed up with many education units promoting VR experiences.He continued that entertainment will be a sector seeing quieter development in 2019, and only a few top players among over 1,000 developers of entertainment VR solutions and games can manage to maintain profitable operations in the year.Based on his observation about the AR market, Peng said, AR mobile games have experienced constant quality upgrades, but it will take some more time for the industry to develop its market scale.Peng continued that one of the problems that need to be addressed is that the hardware battery life can hardly support high power consumption of software systems. He said that a handset's battery power will run out quickly if it is used to run AR games, and parents usually will not allow their children to play such games, which may affect the development of the AR mobile game sector.Shadoworks Studio chairman Andy PengPhoto: Mark Tsai, Digitimes, February 2019

Taiwan received 11 million visitors in 2018 and the number of tourism businesses has grown 21% over the past three years, indicating tourism in Taiwan is booming. With do-it-yourself trips quickly taking over guided tours to become the mainstream, traveler behavior is changing and travel experiences are being reshaped. This has prompted more and more tourism and hospitality companies to engage in new ways of conducting business and come up with new ideas on how to help travelers gain access to information faster and easier.Yung-Hui Chou, director-general, Tourism Bureau, comments that as the government agency in charge, the bureau is looking to help tourism and hospitality businesses upgrade and leverage Taiwan's technological strength to promote smart travel. "When data undergoes analysis, it becomes more useful and valuable," says Chou.Raising the bar on transportation services for travelersInnovative technologies have reshaped how people travel. According to Chou, transportation services are the lines that connect the dots on people's journey. Transportation services can encompass the collection of pre-travel information, transfers between modes of transport during travel, gathering of traveler feedback and analysis of tourism hotspots after travel. Whether and how such transportation information is made available, used and analyzed plays an influential role on people's travel experience. However, transportation has not fully engaged with tourism until now. The Tourism Bureau is taking the initiative to consolidate the information and present it in eight different languages on the itravel website. By providing information on travel, transportation, tourist attractions, gourmet food among others in the form of webpages, which travelers can easily browse without having to download apps to their smartphones, the Tourism Bureau hopes to enable a smoother and more enjoyable travel experience.The Tourism Bureau also endeavors to leverage technologies to raise traveler satisfaction. First of all, to resolve traffic and overcrowding issues at major events such as the Lantern Festival, parades and New Year's Eve celebrations, it is working with Chunghwa Telecom to gain access to the actual amount of people flow by tracking cellular signaling data as well as traffic flow information from the Directorate General of Highways. The Tourism Bureau looks to use push notifications to inform travelers at crowded areas of people and traffic flow conditions in real time so that they can avoid congestions and thereby get diverted to less crowded areas. The Tourism Bureau also hopes to make use of cellular signaling to effectively calculate attendance at an event, further estimate and assess the commercial value the event can generate and conduct post-event review for future improvement.The Tourism Bureau's use of cellular signaling has been field tested at Alishan Scenic Area and Sun Moon Lake. Travelers receive push notifications from telecom operators and are kept informed of real-time road conditions. Traffic authorities such as those in charge of traffic control, highways and interchanges can respond to actual traffic flow conditions with different control solutions.Balancing cross-region tourism developments in TaiwanAlthough Taiwan is receiving an increasing number of international tourists in recent years, most of them only visit northern Taiwan. In an effort to balance tourism developments across the island, the Tourism Bureau will collaborate with local travel agencies and airport authorities to offer compelling airfare discounts to international visitors entering Taiwan through airports in central and southern Taiwan, thereby diverting tourist flow to the regions.Tailoring guidance services for different types of businessesThe Tourism Bureau implements different guidance programs suited to fit young startups and seasoned veterans in the tourism business. To new companies that are full of innovative ideas, the Tourism Bureau will ease regulations and open up databases to help them realize their ideas. It will also hold brainstorming contests and offer prize money to encourage startups to come up with creative service models that solve travelers' pain points. Chou emphasizes, "A government agency should be the provider of data, rather than a player of the game."To traditional firms that are a majority in the tourism business, the Tourism Bureau is endeavoring to help them transform themselves. By helping them make use of subscription-based ERP systems, they can digitize traditional operations. By giving them access to analyzed data, they can benefit from better utilization of hospitality resources and augment their competitiveness. By engaging in discussions, the Tourism Bureau also provides consultation and guidance to help traditional businesses upgrade their offerings to something that customers nowadays are more interested in.ConclusionThe integration of ICT technology has made travel information that used to be exclusively accessible by the tourism industry now available to the general public. With travel information at their fingertips, people are now growingly opting for self-guided tours. In keeping abreast with the trend, the Tourism Bureau has set the policy to build up a platform to promote widespread availability of travel information. Helping the hosts of small and medium tourism businesses that are not tech-savvy transform themselves will be the Tourism Bureau's goal over the next few years.Yung-Hui Chou, director-general, Tourism Bureau

Since its inception in March 2017, Taiwan startup BravoAI has been devoted to applying computing vision (CV), natural language processing (NLP) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to help domestic insurance firms screen insurance applications and handle insurance claim settlements, aiming to help insurers sharply cut their operating costs, according to company founder and chairman Jack Chao.Chao said Taiwan's overall life insurance operating efficiency leaves great room for improvement, citing 2017 statistics as indicating that administration costs of the country's life insurance industry amounted to NT$2.2 trillion (US$71.37 billion), accounting for 57% of the industry's total premium incomes and far outnumbering NT$1.66 trillion in actual claims settled in the year.In analyzing business operation procedures of life insurers, BravoAI has found that insurers usually utilize a lot of labor force screening insurance applications and settling compensation claims. But the time-consuming and complicated job can be easily done with the application of CV, NLP and deep machine learning, thereby not only boosting operating efficiency but also creating new values, according to Chao.While deep learning, AI, and IA (intelligence augmentation) must be all based on big data, global financial service providers including insurers still lag behind other sectors in incorporating these IT technologies due to security concerns, although they have amassed comprehensive customer and historical data.By leveraging its technological advantages, Bravo AI has worked out an automatic non-life claim settlement solution utilizing AI to process documents, medical images, and property insurance pictures to help insurers make accurate decisions in the shortest time possible, Chao revealed.The solution can achieve up to 98.5% in judgment and decision accuracy and proves to be 200 times faster than manpower processing, effectively helping insurers curb insurance fraud by clients. Accordingly, Chao disclosed, the solution has won patronage from many property insurance firms including Tokio Marine Newa Insurance.Besides automatic claim settlement solution, BravoAI will move to release new solutions to create more values for clients, including those for smart insurance application screening, insurance portfolio examination, insurance cycle evaluation and risk management, according to Chao.Chao continued that his company is also integrating experiences in serving insurance firms and blockchain technology to develop solutions acceptable to insurers, hospitals, general public and the government.BravoAI founder and chairman Jack Chao (second left) and his management teamPhoto: Company, February 2019

While many tech startups are devoted to developing smart data analysis technologies, Taiwan startup Authentic Intelligence focuses more on applications of the technologies, according to company CEO Peter Li.Li said his company has singled out specific consumer-oriented artificial intelligence technology from the convergence of data science, domain knowledge and human nature of consumers, with vertical and minute AI technologies also likely to be developed from data science and domain knowledge.In applying psychology to analyze consumer spending, Li commented, mental traits count more than "behavior" and therefore only through deep analysis of core mental traits of consumers can accurate consumer behavior analysis be achieved.Compared with other data-based AI technologies, commercial application technologies will concern enterprises more, Li stressed. In the analysis of personal experiences of consumers, the data involved are usually quite fragmented, which must be combined into an overall facet for further analysis if the essence of domain knowledge can be absorbed in a short time, according to Lee.

Authentic Intelligence has been dedicated to creating concrete data application values for enterprises with smart data analysis technology services since its inception in July 2018, according to company CEO Peter Li.Li said his company name shares the same initials of artificial intelligence (AI), aiming to apply smart technology to help enterprises address related data application issues and create new values.Li disclosed that his company has helped Taiwan's Shinkong Mitsukoshi Department Store chain analyze the shopping data of up to 2.5 million member consumers by applying big data analysis software SAS (statistics analysis system), successfully reducing the cost of printing promotional DMs by 50% to only NT$250 million (US$8.11 million) while allowing the chain to score the same revenues of NT$7.5 billion during annual promotional campaigns.Li commented that the maturing of GPU technology and the ever-advancing computing power have kept driving down data collection costs, accelerating the development of data science.In terms of IoT applications, Li continued, data analysis technology must focus on making predictions rather than adjusting parameters on production lines, so as to create more diverse commercial values.Authentic Intelligence CEO Peter LiPhoto: Mark Tsai, Digitimes, February 2019

TMY Technology (TMYTek), founded in 2014 to develop active and passive mmWave components, has just launched 5G beamforming technology solutions that can help address problems encountered by developers of 5G devices and systems, according to company founder and president SW Chang.Chang said that mmWave has been adopted as new frequency spectrum for 5G NR (new radio) thanks to its traits of short wavelength and broad transmission bandwidth, but its poorer diffraction capability will result in path fading, which is an issue that must be tackled first.The issue can be addressed through the design and production of antenna arrays, but the existing directionality of antenna pattern will lead to insufficient coverage, Chang continued, stressing that beamforming is the exact critical technology to fix the coverage insufficiency.Chang said beamforming is an essential 5G technology that can help address antenna, baseband and algorithm problems. He disclosed that TMYTek has rolled out the world's only mmWave beamforimg development kits, dubbed BBoX, to help 5G device and system developers shorten their development time. In addition, with a highly flexible architecture design, BBox allows different developers to purchase only the exact kits they need, so as to maximize their cost-effectiveness.Besides BBox, TMYTek will also release AiP (antenna in package) modules in 2019 for application to 5G base stations, including 4X4 and 8X8 specs. The company has teamed up with one of China's top-3 antenna makers to turn out 5G antennas, by providing AiP modules, Chang revealed.TMYTek is eyeing huge mmWave application opportunities, Chang said, adding that comprehensive ICT supply chains in Taiwan and great demand potentials in China, India, Japan and South Korea will usher in great growth momentum for the company.TMYTek founder and president SW ChangPhoto: Company, February 2019

A large proportion of the cost, disruption, pollution and exposure to natural disasters in a city would be eliminated if there were no infrastructure. Imagine no sewage or gas pipes, electricity poles or even sidewalks from which people leap into the face of approaching traffic. Poor sanitation such as leaking pipes kills half a million children under the age of five annually and costs US$200 billion a year in healthcare costs and lost income worldwide.We have seen a beginning of independence with houses ceasing to require telephone wires because mobile phones are used. However, a city where buildings are fully independent seems like a pipedream. Until now. The smart materials and robotics approach to smart cities is far more powerful than the initial IT and sensor centric approach and it is cracking the problem.Passivedom Corporation sells a residence that grabs its own water from the atmosphere and treats its own sewage, its electric power being from its own solar panels. Separately, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates unveiled a futuristic toilet in November 2018 that does not need water or sewers and uses chemicals to turn human waste into fertilizer. His foundation has committed US$200 million and expects to spend the same amount again before the toilets are viable for widespread distribution."The current toilet simply sends the waste away in the water, whereas these toilets don't have the sewer," Gates said. "They take both the liquids and solids and do chemical work on it, including burning it in most cases."During a speech he held up a jar of human faeces to illustrate the importance of improving sanitation. "It's a good reminder that in there could be 200 trillion rotavirus cells, 20 billion Shigella bacteria, and 100,000 parasitic worm eggs," he said. He expects the market for the toilets to be over US$6 billion by 2030. There is big money in smart cities based on smart materials. Solar roads that self-deice and charge vehicles at speed are being installed in China in 2022. They cost millions of dollars per kilometer so this will become another multi-billion dollar zero-emission business with good payback.There are many ways a city can produce hundreds of megawatts itself. Megawatts from the new solar windows and cladding on a high rise gives affordable, secure, clean, electric cooking, HVAC, lighting and services not hostage to utility price rises. Since most cities are on a large river or the sea, boost that with the new plug-and-play wave, tidal and tethered-drone wind power with minimal intermittency and therefore minimal energy storage. Combinations will be tuned to demand profile through the day - far more efficient than energy storage. Little or no poisonous, flammable, large, heavy, short-lived battery is needed. Fit-and-forget clean supercapacitors often suffice. Indeed, there are now two routes to supercapacitors hitting the energy density of successful lithium-ion batteries in 2012.The Facebook-funded smart city by Toronto will not have sidewalks because only gentle robot shuttles and people will pass. Most new smart cities target zero-emission energy independence, ban private cars (a dangerous waste of space) and provide free public transport. Transport is pure electric with energy independence thanks to solar bodywork and wind turbines erecting when stationary. An interim stage is intermittent rails, overhead catenary and solar bodywork doing top up charging. Buses and trucks need one fifth of the battery then and they can take more passengers and cargo. Does installing a hydrogen grid for fuel cells at buildings and in vehicles fit in the trend to little or no infrastructure? Well, no but monster Class 8 trucks and light rail have a window of opportunity for fuel cells charged only at end of route, provided we start making the hydrogen without emissions, such as "free" manufacture when wind turbines and solar are over-producing. One may even wonder if independent clean buildings can reverse the move to cities if country living becomes more viable, luxurious and easily connected to city life by low-cost, maintenance-free, energy-independent aircraft and road transport. In the meantime, the electric vehicle business is changing rapidly. In 10 years from now the largest output will no longer be electric bikes but robot weeders, mostly powered by on-board solar: no infrastructure again.(Peter Harrop is chairman of IDTechEx)

AI applications can usher in brand-new values for Taiwan's medical sector, given the growing integration of health insurance data and technological resources and improving relationships between doctors and patients, according to Barry Lam, chairman of Quanta Computer, which is actively developing AI-based devices including servers.But more efforts must be made to address five major issues seen in the integration of AI-based healthcare resources and the development of smart solutions, so that Taiwan's smart healthcare industry can progress smoothly, he said.The first issue concerns the ownership of healthcare data, including personal data of patients and their medical records. Will such data be owned by hospitals, doctors, patients or the country? Based on current regulations, the data can be provided to a third party only for research purposes. But patient's right to know and own their own medical data emerges as an issue that must be well dealt with, according to Lam.Then comes the issue of privacy and cybersecurity. Lam said that his company helps enterprises conduct detailed studies in this regard, allowing Taiwan's smart healthcare data to be more systematically collected, stored and analyzed.The third is the lack of uniform data standards and forms adopted by hospitals, which has made big data integration a difficult job. Lam said the government in Taiwan has yet to work out clear-cut policies for developing innovative technologies and related industries, and the policies are needed to promote uniform data standards and patterns.The fourth rests with the difficulty in industry-academia cooperation. At the moment, Taiwan's Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) maintains mainly academic units as its research partners for AI innovations, Lam said, adding that it has been difficult for ITC firms to have more exchange or cooperation with MOST and academic units. He hopes for more opportunities for such exchange and cooperation.The last problem is that a cross-ministry cooperation mechanism has yet to be established. MOST is now in charge of AI development, but Lam opines that cooperation among more ministries is badly needed to achieve effective combination of AI technologies and professional knowledge of diverse industries. For instance, Lam continued, medical care going smart requires exchanges between the transport and health authorities, and smart transportation needs technology and information support from both the transport ministry and MOST.Cooperation between doctors and engineersTaiwan's national health insurance databank, set up in 1995, has been fully digitalized, but what counts more is whether big data collected by major hospitals can be effectively utilized to support AI training, Lam said. He stressed that in the development process for AI healthcare solutions, it is crucial for doctors to record and illustrate symptoms, which can be done through cooperation between many doctors and AI engineers. In this regard, Quanta can help doctors more efficiently handle diagnosis, symptom illustration and data analysis by providing better interfaces, and the company will move to research language input to help further boost diagnosis efficiency.AI technology development is now a hot topic at both the healthcare end and engineering fields, but it remains to be seen how patients can be convinced that AI can provide accurate analysis and innovative services in the process of medical diagnosis. Lam said AI can first make doctors smart and then patients, meaning that they can all quickly access accurate and diverse medical resources and references.Quanta Computer chairman Barry LamPhoto: Shihmin Fu, Digitimes, January 2019