Countries around the world continue to respond to zero-carbon emissions policies. The EU proposed its Fit for 55 package, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55%. In the US, the Biden administration has budgeted US$550 billion to an infrastructure plan that includes electrical grids, electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage.
The so-called third-generation semiconductors are promising, and Taiwanese firms, including those from the semicondutor and IT sectors, are gearing up efforts looking to build a strong presence in compound semiconductors similar to that in the present semiconductor scene. With IC shortages vary from segment and segment, chip vendors are expected to see mixed results in 2022. GaAs foundries and epitaxial wafer suppliers say they are not concerned about clients overbooking for power amplifiers, expressing optimism about demand.
Electric vehicles have strong potential in the Indian market. But not everyone in the South Asian country is convinced that a market where about 22 out of 1,000 people own a vehicle is ready for the EV revolution yet, according to DIGITIMES' correspondent in India. In India's mobile telecom market, intense price competition has drastically changed its landscape, with the top-3 carriers dominating over 90% of the market. In the semiconductor sector, AMD is expected to be the first adopt TSMC's SoIC technology fot its HPC chips.
The Indian government expects massive adoption of electric vehicles in the country over the next decade. According to NITI Aayog, the country's top think tank, EV sales penetration could reach 70% for commercial cars, 30% for private cars, 40% for buses, and 80% for two- and three-wheelers by 2030.
Chih-Kai Cheng, a friend of mine in venture capital business in the US, has remarked that the ethnic Chinese in Silicon Valley have a broad vision but lack practical experience in resource integration. Taiwanese are pragmatic and reliable but sometimes act without visions. People from China think big and bold but often end up with biting off more than they can chew.
Micron is stepping up expansions of its production capacity, with plans to install EUV tools at its Taiwan fabs in 2024. In China, smartphone shipments to the domestic market slipped 5.4% in September, with local brands accounting for over 90% of the shipments. And supply side issues, such as component shortages, may hinder 5G smartphone shipment growth globally in 2022.
Over the past 36 years, I have learned quite a few lessons from Taiwan's electronics industry development. One of them is that only through "sharing" and "reciprocity" can we achieve win-win situations.
It has been nearly three years since the US-China trade war pushed the electronics supply chain toward Southeast Asia. In addition to the movement of large assembly and installation manufacturers to Southeast Asia, whether or not other component manufacturers would follow has also been a top of discussion.
Automotive IDMs have already told their clients that their chip prices will go up by 10-20% starting 2022 amid rising compoents and materaisls costs. Foundry quotes have been rising, but they are expected to increase less sharply next year with near-term demand for IC components to remain robust. Foundry houses' race to advance process technologies is promising strong growth for EUV tool vendor ASML.
As a co-inventor of the technology that powers hundreds of millions of units of Kindle and an inductee of the National Inventor Hall of Fame in America, Barrett Comiskey, founder and CEO of Migo, could have retired young and enjoyed a comfortable life after selling E-Ink, his first company. However, it did not take long for him to embark on another innovation journey to solve the same problem that Google Loon and low-earth orbit satellite companies are trying to solve.
Samsung's new NAND flash production capacity is coming, which is likely to create oversupply and exacerbate price falls for the memory. Apple has been relyng on Taiwan-based ODMs for producing its Mac devices, but it reportedly is looking to outsource portions of the Mac production to Chinese makers. But Taiwan's IC substrate suppliers have reportedly entered Apple's supply chain for new Mac chips.
Since moving into the new economic era in the 1990s, India has chosen the information service sector as its core industry. Much of the loans and subsidies from the World Bank have been spent on infrastructure such as satellite communications, which has made software business process outsourcing (BPO) a mainstream business in India. The fundamental industrial structure of BPO has been well developed since the 1990s.
Foxconn has been aggressive in expanding its presence in the EV sector, and it is looking to promote localized EV production in various regions to tap respective markets. Robust orders for HPC chips from AMD and Nvidia are expected to drive sales growth at TSMC in 2022. Quanta Computer's server manufacturing facilities in Taiwan have reached almost full production capacity and will open a new plant in Thailand next year to produce server motherboards.
China's third-quarter economic growth numbers slowed more than expected to 4.9% from the same period last year, falling short of the 5.2% forecasted by a Reuters poll, but the growth has not yet bottomed, said economists.
India's three major telecommunication companies account for 90% of the business opportunities. Vodafone's market share is declining. The fastest-growing player is Reliance Jio, which accumulates service users through a successful marketing ploy of low-cost mobile phones. Its current market share in India's telecommunication market has reached 37% with 436 million users.