Facing intense competition in China's new energy vehicle market, electric vehicle leader BYD has clearly shifted its operational focus toward overseas markets to sustain high growth momentum. However, with global capacity expansion largely in place, the company's future growth rate is unlikely to replicate past rapid gains.
Notably, BYD recently began adjusting its capital expenditure plans, signaling that overall capacity construction has reached saturation. The company expects capex in the fourth quarter of 2025 to fall below third-quarter levels and to decline significantly in 2026, mainly because vehicle and battery production capacities are sufficient to meet future market demand.
According to Citibank, citing BYD management estimates, overseas sales outside China will reach 900,000 to 1 million units in 2025, rising to 1.5 million to 1.6 million units in 2026—a year-over-year increase of about 60-80%, driven primarily by new model launches.
In fact, BYD's overseas sales have already accounted for approximately 20% of total volume so far in 2025, double the share in 2024. Although the company lowered its total sales target for 2025 by 16% to 4.6 million vehicles, rapid overseas growth remains a key driver supporting overall revenue performance.
BYD's international strategy adopts a multi-point balanced approach to diversify geopolitical risks and strengthen market penetration. In 2025, overseas sales are expected to be evenly distributed across Europe, North America, and ASEAN regions, each accounting for roughly one-third of total overseas volume.
The company faces dual pressures. First, in the domestic Chinese market, price wars continue to intensify, especially in mid- to low-priced segments against competitors like Geely and Leapmotor. Second, profitability challenges surfaced in BYD's October financial report, which showed quarterly profits falling at the steepest rate in four years, reflecting a significant impact from market competition on earnings power.
Article edited by Jack Wu
