Amid the escalating chip war between the US and China, chipmaking equipment suppliers outside of the US may get a temporary reprieve as the governments of the Netherlands and Japan try to strike a delicate balance between political pressure and commercial needs.
The Netherlands announced export restrictions on March 8, indicating that exports of the most advanced DUV lithography tools will require prior approval on a case-by-case basis, with the exact definition of 'the most advanced' yet to be determined.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg quoted Japanese trade minister Yasutoshi Nishimura saying that Japan has not decided regarding export restrictions for chipmaking equipment, adding that the country will consider appropriate measures in light of developments in the Netherlands.
Bloomberg reported that Liesje Schreinemacher, trade minister of the Netherlands, said the country is trying to strike a balance between the US and China, on which the Netherlands is mutually dependent, as Schreinemacher described.
ASML said in a statement that its financial outlook for 2023 and beyond, announced in November 2022, was kept unchanged as the export controls take time to put into legislation and take effect.
Despite a lack of policy clairty that may cast a cloud on ASML's outlook, as market demand for ASML's products remains strong, ASML's financial performance will not, at least for now, be affected by the upcoming export bans. A Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said in a note that although ASML may not be able to ship some DUV tools to China-based customers, it can ship to non-Chinese buyers amid robust demand and order backlog, helping it to achieve about 25% sales growth in 2023.
Reuters quoted ING analyst Marc Hesselink saying that in the worst scenario, 10% of ASML's worldwide sales may be affected, but demands from non-Chinese customers, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, will help fill the void left by Chinese customers and the impact may be less, adding that ASML will thrive outside China in the long run as chipmakers worldwide are expanding capacity.
