DIGITIMES projects that the global notebook shipment volume will achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2025 to 2030, with total shipments expected to surpass 200 million units by 2029. However, in 2026, due to an anticipated economic slowdown combined with US tariffs and inflation-driven price increases, shipment growth momentum is forecasted to weaken, resulting in only slightly more than 1% growth compared to 2025.
The year 2027 is expected to mark the highest on-year shipment growth within the next five years, reaching approximately 6%. This surge will primarily be attributed to the anticipated launch of Windows 12 in 2027.
Advances in small language models and enhanced AI computing power in processors are likely to accelerate AI application development on notebook terminals. Additionally, production bases outside China are expected to narrow efficiency and cost gaps relative to Chinese facilities, positively impacting shipment growth.
