Apple is expected to hold a product launch event in March 2026, with a budget MacBook anticipated to take center stage. Supply chain sources indicate volume shipments are projected to begin that same month, with some key components already delivered since late 2025. Rising prices for critical components — memory in particular — are making it harder to keep the model affordable, and could weigh on shipment volumes.
Delayed ramp, familiar assemblers
Mass production was originally slated to begin in late 2025 but has since been pushed back to the first quarter of 2026, with volume ramping in March. Quanta Computer is expected to be the primary assembler, with Foxconn joining at a later stage. Supply chain estimates put Apple's projected shipments at 15–16 million units over two years, with the first year potentially exceeding 8 million units. Critics, however, caution that these figures may be overly optimistic.
Components are getting more expensive, and unless specifications are downgraded, price hikes may be unavoidable. Since pricing is closely tied to sales volume, a less-than-affordable budget MacBook could meaningfully dent sales.
Memory squeeze tightens
Memory prices have multiplied several times over the past year. Some brand vendors had hoped that rising output from Chinese manufacturers could ease shortages, but Chinese suppliers are prioritizing domestic brands and have already hit full capacity. Apple and Samsung Electronics were once considered the consumer brands least exposed to memory price increases.
That view has shifted. During a recent earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook acknowledged that the impact in the first quarter of 2026 would be limited, but warned that effects would become more pronounced from the second quarter of 2026 onward.
Battery costs add to the pressure
Lithium battery raw material prices are also surging. Battery manufacturers report that rising cobalt prices have sent battery module prices sharply higher, with an additional 10–15% increase in February alone. International cobalt prices have climbed from US$21,500 per metric ton in February 2025 to US$56,200 — a 161% rise — following an export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo.
How budget is "budget"?
With costs climbing, the affordability of the "budget" MacBook is increasingly in question. Early rumors pointed to a US$599 price tag, close to the record low once seen for the M1 MacBook Air at Walmart.
Most estimates now place it between US$699 and US$749. For context, Apple's lowest-priced MacBook Air M4 starts at US$999, or US$899 with an education discount. Where Apple sets the price will directly affect the MacBook Air lineup, whose core positioning overlaps with the budget model.
Apple to outpace peers despite headwinds
According to DIGITIMES Research analyst Henry Chang, Apple's total MacBook shipments are projected to reach 21 million units in 2026, up 2.16% from 20.55 million units in 2025 — making Apple one of the few brands positioned to grow amid rising costs and shortages.
In the first quarter of 2026, Apple's shipments are expected to outperform peers both quarter over quarter and year over year, driven primarily by MacBook models with new processors. Apple's MacBook shipments are forecast to rise 1.4% quarter over quarter and 3.7% year over year, while global notebook shipments in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to fall 13.1% sequentially and 4.1% annually.
Article edited by Jerry Chen
