On July 31, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing new tariffs—ranging from 10% to 41%—on imports from 68 countries and the European Union (EU). While many trade partners faced updated rates, tariffs on Vietnamese goods remained unchanged: a 20% duty on direct imports and a 40% levy on transshipped goods. In exchange, Vietnam has agreed to fully open its market and eliminate all tariffs on American imports.
However, Vietnam's official response has been markedly more reserved. On July 3, the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Trump had spoken with Communist Party General Secretary Tô Lâm and discussed trade, but emphasized that "many details remain to be negotiated and clarified." Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade, which oversees commercial policy, has not released any specifics about such a deal.
According to DIGITIMES analyst Yen Chou, major state-run Vietnamese media outlets, such as Vietnam Television (VTV) and the Government News Portal (Báo Điện tử Chính phủ), offered scant coverage, devoting fewer than 100 words in Vietnamese-language reports. In contrast, regional and private media—including Sài Gòn Giải Phóng (Saigon Liberation Daily), VietNamNet, and VnEconomy—featured broader commentary from industry insiders and local financial analysts.
Industry cautiously optimistic, but wary
Many local analysts acknowledged that a 20% tariff is more favorable than the previously threatened 46%, which could help soften the blow for Vietnamese exporters. Still, Chou noted several underlying concerns among local stakeholders, which fall into three key areas:
Economic disruption from a "Zero-Tariff" US influx
Should Vietnam indeed grant zero tariffs and full market access to all American imports, the move could severely undercut domestic industries, including automotive manufacturer VinFast, retail giants Co.opmart and Bách Hóa Xanh, e-commerce platforms Tiki and Sendo, and food and agriculture companies like Vinamilk and Ba Huân. These firms could face intensified competition that threatens their market share.
Undefined scope of the 20% and 40% tariffs
The lack of clarity around which Vietnamese products would be subject to the 20% tariff—or which rerouted goods would face 40%—has raised red flags. It is unclear how the US would define "Vietnamese-made" goods, whether there are local content requirements, or how rerouted products would be distinguished from genuinely domestic ones. These definitions are likely still under negotiation.
Vietnam faces capacity challenges in origin verification
The agreement, if implemented, would require Vietnam to strictly certify the origin of exports, particularly to differentiate between local and rerouted goods. Beginning May 2025, Vietnam shifted issuance of certificates of origin to the Ministry of Industry and Trade under a "substantive transformation" standard, demanding meaningful manufacturing steps for goods to qualify as Vietnamese-made.
However, Vietnam's recent government reforms may complicate enforcement. In February, the National Assembly approved a sweeping reorganization, reducing central ministries from 22 to 17, and cutting 63 provincial governments to just 34. Although the Ministry of Industry and Trade remains intact, staffing reductions and limited automation may hinder the government's ability to conduct the labor-intensive inspections required under the deal.
As it stands, Trump's bold declaration has not yet translated into a concrete, bilateral agreement. For now, the gap between the political theater in Washington and the measured caution in Hanoi underscores how far the supposed "deal" still has to go.
Article edited by Jack Wu
