The Trump administration's policies are expected to seriously undermine renewable energy supply and demand in the short term, while its moves to block Chinese solar firms with US plants are unlikely to have much effect, as the Chinese firms have been filing patent lawsuits in the US against their competitors to impede their operation.
The White House has erected multiple barriers targeting Chinese solar companies, from anti-dumping duties to high transhipment tariffs over Southeast Asian countries. The US' new regulations tighten foreign investment scrutiny, with Chinese-backed US factories now facing restrictions even below 5% ownership levels. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds fresh compliance burdens specifically targeting "foreign entities."
Yet Trump's blockade hasn't sparked rapid expansion of American or non-Chinese manufacturing. Chinese companies control over 90% of global solar production, with mainstream N-type TOPCon modules intensifying competition as the technology becomes standard.
Chinese-backed US factories have turned to patent warfare. Legal battles between manufacturers effectively grant "judicial certification" of patents through US court rulings. New entrants establishing US production must navigate the same patent disputes, concentrated heavily on the dominant TOPCon technology.
The top-2 Chinese players JinkoSolar and Longi have waged patent battles since 2025 across China, the US, Australia and Japan. JinkoSolar has also targeted India's Waree Energies in US courts, while Trina Solar and Canadian Solar have escalated conflicts in China.
Patent litigation exploded throughout 2024. Trina Solar sued Canadian Solar and Jiangsu Runergy New Energy Technology in the US, while Maxeon Energy targeted Hanwha Qcells, Canadian Solar and REC Solar. The battles extend globally, with JA Solar pursuing Astronergy in Europe and Trina Solar continuing aggressive litigation in China.
Industry sources said companies investing in US manufacturing to comply with domestic policies must navigate extensive "TOPCon patent siege" tactics deployed by most Chinese manufacturers. Even if Chinese-backed factories underperform due to Trump policies, competitors cannot easily capture their market positions.
US court rulings favoring Chinese-backed factories effectively grant them "certification," indirectly blocking both Chinese and non-Chinese rivals alike.
On the demand side, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's passage includes provisions ending tax credits for solar and wind generation. Analysts predict a cliff-like demand drop ahead.
Article edited by Joseph Tsai
