The Original Design Manufacturer (ODM) industry is defying typical first-quarter seasonality in 2025, propelled by robust notebook (NB) shipments and sustained AI server demand. While the first quarter traditionally marks a slow season, industry sources indicate that concerns over potential tariff increases under the incoming Trump administration may be driving accelerated shipments.
Unexpected notebook momentum
Wistron projects its notebook, desktop PC, and monitor shipments to see only a 5–10% decline in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This modest decrease marks a significant improvement from historical first-quarter patterns, which typically saw 20–30% drops.
According to DIGITIMES statistics, Wistron's first-quarter NB shipments recorded year-over-year declines of 13.2% in 2024 and 15.21% in 2023, which the company attributed to customer and product mix adjustments. However, industry observers suggest the current surge in brand customer shipments correlates with preparations for the upcoming Trump administration.
Trade anxiety fuels shipping rush
The president-elect's threats of tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China have already triggered anxiety in global trade circles. In response, shipping companies report a surge in expedited orders as customers rush to move goods ahead of potential tariff implementation.
The impact is evident in recent shipping data. Wistron's notebook shipments reached 1.8 million units in December 2024, up from 1.7 million in November, with fourth-quarter shipments totaling 5.3 million units. Similarly, Quanta Computer reported 4.3 million notebook units shipped in December, marking a 19.44% increase from November.
AI servers drive growth
The traditional first-quarter slowdown is further offset by robust AI server growth. Wistron expects AI server shipments to post double-digit growth in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The company's strategic shift is reflected in its revenue composition, with servers now accounting for 43% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2024, surpassing notebooks at 35%.
Quanta shares this optimistic outlook, particularly regarding Nvidia's next-generation AI server cabinet, the GB200. Initial shipments commenced in late 2024, with production scaling up in the first quarter of 2025.
Record-breaking performance
Both ODMs achieved unprecedented results in 2024, largely driven by AI server demand. Quanta reported a December revenue of NT$138.416 billion (approx. US$4.29 billion), down 2.08% month-over-month but up 48.99% year-over-year, with annual revenue reaching NT$1.41 trillion, a 29.8% increase. Wistron posted a December revenue of NT$105.6 billion, up 10.9% month-over-month and 41.4% year-over-year, with total annual revenue reaching NT$1.04 trillion, up 21.01%.
Article translated by Heidi Tai
