Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is projected to approach US$36.9 billion in 2010, a 122.1% increase from 2009 spending of US$16.6 billion, according to Gartner. The research firm previously predicted spending for 2010 would grow 113.2%.
"The strong semiconductor growth in 2010 has driven semiconductor capital growth to all-time highs," said Klaus Rinnen, managing VP at Gartner. "Capex is above 95% due to strong spending by the foundry and logic segments, along with a technology upgrade for the memory manufacturers."
However, Gartner expects capex growth to slow to 10% in 2011, because a slowing economy will negatively impact electronic and semiconductor sales.
"Companies should prepare their manufacturing plan for a softer 2011," Rinnen said. "Companies should also prepare business plans for the next equipment down cycle, starting in late 2012, because memory companies will have overinvested, thus generating excess equipment."
2010 is shaping up as the strongest year for the wafer fabrication equipment market in recent years, Gartner indicated. The segment is projected to increase 119.9% in 2010, followed by 3.9% growth in 2011. Gartner said that overall utilization rates peaked at 94% in the second quarter of 2010. However, the rates will quickly drop back to the 90% range as more capacity comes online, semiconductor production slows and becomes more aligned with end-user demand.
The market for packaging and assembly equipment will increase more than 123% in 2010, and is expected to continue to grow through 2012 though at a modest single-digit rate, according to Gartner. The decline expected for 2013 is based on a more-traditional oversupply condition, particularly in the memory sector of the device market, and it also reflects a substantial slowdown in the copper bonding build-out.
The automated test equipment market will jump by 144% in 2010, Gartner said. Solid growth has occurred through the first half of the year, but the segment is expected to realize seasonal declines late 2010 and in early 2011. Gartner revealed its 2010 and 2011 growth expectations for the segment are driven heavily by the transition to DDR3 memory test processes.
| Gartner: Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending forecast, 2009-2014 (US$m) | ||||||
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| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Semiconductor capital spending | 25,876.3 | 50,686.6 | 55,812.0 | 59,934.0 | 54,972.9 | 54,909.7 |
| Y/Y | (41.2%) | 95.9% | 10.1% | 7.4% | (8.3%) | (0.1%) |
| Capital equipment (includes test) | 16,606.1 | 36,887.6 | 38,697.9 | 43,266.5 | 36,573.8 | 36,467.6 |
| Y/Y | (45.8%) | 122.1% | 4.9% | 11.8% | (15.5%) | (0.3%) |
| Wafer fab equipment | 12,747.7 | 28,032.1 | 29,116.3 | 33,227.3 | 29,131.5 | 28,564.1 |
| Y/Y | (47.4%) | 119.9% | 3.9% | 14.1% | (12.3%) | (1.9%) |
| Packaging and assembly equipment | 2,708.5 | 6,049.6 | 6,424.1 | 6,647.4 | 4,847.0 | 5,082.5 |
| Y/Y | (32.3%) | 123.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | (27.1%) | 4.9% |
| Automated test equipment | 1,149.8 | 2,805.8 | 3,157.6 | 3,391.9 | 2,595.3 | 2,821.1 |
| Y/Y | (53.0%) | 144.0% | 12.5% | 7.4% | (23.5%) | 8.7% |
| Other spending | 9,270.2 | 13,799.1 | 17,114.1 | 16,667.5 | 18,399.0 | 18,442.1 |
| Y/Y | (30.7%) | 48.9% | 24.0% | (2.6%) | 10.4% | 0.2% |
Source: Gartner, compiled by Digitimes, September 2010
Article translated by Jessie Shen
