Despite iSuppli recently forecasting that large-size panel oversupply will increase next quarter, HB Chen, president of AU Optronics (AUO), said that panel demand will not be as affected by seasonal factors next quarter.
Although panel shipments will be slightly affected by weaker monitor demand next quarter, demand for notebooks and TVs will continue to drive overall panel demand, Chen noted.
The range of decrease for LCD monitors will be restricted within a single digit percentage, Chen added.
LCD TV demand is expected to reach 37-40 million units next year. Notebook demand will also remain strong, as some vendors are offering low-priced models and notebook makers’ panel inventory levels are already low this quarter, Chen indicated.
In addition, panel makers may switch between monitor and notebook panel production for their notebook panel capacity. Makers may also increase TV panel output at the expense of monitor panels, which may cause tight supply for the latter to occur, Chen said.
Glass substrate maker Corning also believes that 2006 will be another positive year for the LCD industry. The company stated that although LCD TV demand may drop slightly in the first quarter, this is always the case, as the fourth quarter is always the strongest quarter. However, it is more important to focus on LCD TV penetration rates, the company said, and Corning expects that penetration rates will continue to accelerate next year.
iSuppli issued a press release recently, indicating that overall panel oversupply will widen to 8% next quarter, up from 6% this quarter. The key areas of excess are in TVs, which will see an increase of oversupply from 5% in the third quarter to 9% in the fourth, and in monitors, which will increase from 4% to 10%.
In related news, Chen forecast that LCD TV prices will continue to decrease next year, placing strong price-cutting pressure on key component makers, which may be forced to drop their prices as much as 20%.
Article translated by Carrie Yu and edited by Michael McManus
