One of the main themes at Computex this year will be mobile computing and how connected consumer electronics devices will be the future of computing. Digitimes spoke with Qualcomm's Steve Mollenkopf, president and chief operating officer, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies about how the company has been planning for these events for several years. The following are excerpts from the interview.Changes in mobile computingIf you look at the current market, most people access the Internet on their mobile phone or PC. However, the trend in the market is that users will begin to have access to a number of other devices that look less and less like a traditional PC and increasingly more like a combination of a PC and a phone. The success of what you see in tablets today with companies like Apple is undeniable, and with the expected release of Microsoft RT later this year, the trend will continue.We think this trend plays very nicely to our set of technologies as well as those of our customers. Qualcomm has seen a lot of success in the handset business and that success transitioned into smartphones. So the move toward mobile computing is another exciting opportunity for us. Just the number of partners that we have been able to engage with on this new platform has really been impressive. Not only do you get different OEMs but you get different types of use cases that really define a new category of products. And we have been very pleased with our traction in the big PC accounts, because for us, we've been coming at computing from the mobile side and this provides us with new opportunities to sell our chipsets.Steps in the journeyIf you go back 10 years and look at what was driving Qualcomm's business, it was very much voice and text centric devices, and we delivered primarily into the CDMA space. But we had this vision of the phone as a mini computer, where you could run all different types of operating systems and access data no matter where you were.So we started to invest pretty heavily with the goal of achieving this vision. We invested in connectivity, in developing very powerful and efficient mobile processors as well as graphics engines. We had to invest early on because these are 5-8 year cycles from a technology perspective. We have been doing this upstream for quite some time so we are happy to be in a position where these products are starting to be launched. For us, it feels like our view of the industry was pretty much dead on.Moreover, in our opinion, the fact that the largest PC software provider has embraced the same view of the industry is incredibly significant. If you look at the key messages of Microsoft for Windows RT, such as devices being always on, always connected and in a thin form factor. All of the things that define the experience are similar to what we are doing with smartphones, only now it will be within the traditional PC ecosystem.Computex productsAt the Computex show, we will be highlighting our Snapdragon S4 class of products, such as the 8960 featuring integrated LTE on a next-generation ARM processor, with integrated connectivity and brand new graphics. We will also be highlighting our 8640 quad-core as well as lower-tier products that are coming out at the end of the year.The other interesting thing on the connectivity side is we will continue to show Qualcomm Atheros products. We also recently launched our first Snapdragon connected TV.Differentiated design of SnapdragonARM has been a great partner of ours and we expect to continue that relationship for a long time. However, we don't simply license ARM processors. Qualcomm has an architecture license, which allows us to adapt our implementation of the ARM instruction to our particular needs. So because our microarchitecture is adapted for our particular use cases, we can design products that achieve the highest performance at the lowest power.For example, if you look at our quad-core products, they are designed so they run faster and at lower power than any competing processor that can be licensed from ARM. This is because we customize it for our individual use. Even our dual-core solutions outperform other people's quad-core solutions and our quad core design, because it achieve its high performance at such low power, can sit in a thermal envelope that enables the ability for OEMs to create extremely thin products.Then there are competing solutions. Some of them were originally designed for use in a PC but are now being put in a phone. But there is just not enough surface area in there for these devices to dissipate the heat. So you end up with hot spots and undesirable power performance. These competing solutions have to turn off much quicker and essentially, even though the ability is supposed to be there, you run into a thermal window.We design our products from the ground up for our particular use cases. And this strategy has been very helpful for us. If you look back, we were the first company to come out with a GHz processor in the phone space and we did that about two years before anyone had anything close. Today we are the first to come out with production devices for the next generation ARM architecture. By the time competing devices are available, we will have a full range of products, from the high-end to entry level that support our custom built architecture.Enabling partners, a business modelWe are unique in the industry in that we invest upstream across multiple technology vectors. We are a leading technology provider for modems, connectivity, GPU and processors, and all of these technologies are integrated on a platform level. This enables our OEM partners to spend most of their time figuring out how to differentiate their products from each other. They don't have to spend a lot of time trying to put together multiple chips to create a smartphone and they can offer very attractive IDs because of our integration abilities. Basically we support a number of OEMs through a horizontal business model where we create a platform that enables them to go to market with very little R&D investment.However, we purposely do not do the entire product. We leave room in order to let partners differentiate their products in the market. Although it does not get a lot of external discussion, there is a whole ecosystem that surrounds Qualcomm-based products. You see that in the games that are optimized for our products, or in whole suite of software that support very differentiated audio, camera, or video features, as well as peer-to-peer technology. This is all available to OEMs so they have the ability to differentiate as much as they possibly can.In addition, at the company level we work very hard to open up new markets for cellular and connectivity. You'll see initiatives from us into the health care market or into visual computing areas, such as augmented reality.It should be noted though that although we are involved in a horizontal business model, we are not in conflict with vendors who have embraced a vertical model. Some of them are our best customers. The reason is we have the ability to produce leading-edge technology and the way you become a leading OEM is to embrace technology. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find any smartphone in the market that didn't have Qualcomm technology inside.Android vs. WindowsWhen there are big changes in an industry, like the one we are undergoing in mobile computing, it tends to open up many areas for innovation. Qualcomm views our role as being there to provide technology at scale to various ecosystems. We don't expect that there will be conflict for someone like us because we think there will be growth in the overall pie that Android and Windows want a slice of. There definitely will be multiple ecosystems and if we can provide the right technology, basically we can all grow together.SmartphonesWe are unique as a silicon provider in that we cover all market segments but it should be noted that there is incredible demand worldwide to have the latest and greatest technology, If you look back eight years or so ago, we'd launch a product primarily in Japan and about one year later it would start showing up in North American and then seep into other markets. But now there is no more spreading out of technology. At the high-end of the smartphone market, the thirst for the latest technology immediately runs across all tiers so the latest technologies roll out very rapidly. Just look at the incredible demand worldwide for our 8960.However, there is also enormous growth in the mass-market tier for phones that can access the Internet, particularly in emerging markets. The current situation is a coincident where the cost of smartphones is coming down while at the same time these geographies are transitioning to 3G. In these emerging markets, the way people are experiencing the Internet, and many of them are experiencing it for the first time, is increasingly through a smartphone.What is making this mass market growth possible is that we can supply affordable price points through our integration and scale.OEMsYou have to be very flexible in this industry or else you disappear. If you look at the transition from feature phones to smartphones, for example, you see some changes in the OEM landscape. Some made the transition and increased their market share while others lost share or simply disappeared. For us, the number of OEMs we've had to deal with hasn't really changed though the faces and needs of our partners may have.For example, as we transition to more emerging markets, there is a new class of OEM that we have had to adapt our business model to. These OEMs may require a more complete reference designs and more support. However, our job is to be the technology enabler, not an end market consumer player.Steve Mollenkopf, president and chief operating officer, Qualcomm CDMA Technologies Photo: Company

One of the hot trends in the IT industry is the rollout of 802.11ac Wi-Fi products. Branded Wi-Fi 5G by Broadcom, 802.11ac offers a promise of improved wireless reliability, range and coverage. Entry-level 5G Wi-Fi products will support 450Mb per second, at least three times faster than 802.11n, while some high-speed 802.11ac devices will offer transmission speeds in excess of a gigabit per second.With Computex Taipei about to begin, Digitimes spoke with Michael Hurlston, senior VP and general manager, Wireless Combo Connectivity Line of Business at Broadcom to discuss the rollout of 802.11ac.Q: Why does Broadcom call 802.11ac fifth generation Wi-Fi?A: It's a branding issue to compare advancements being made in the cellular wireless space with the Wi-Fi space. We are running one generation ahead of the cellular players. Wi-Fi has gone from 802.11 to 802.11.b, 802.11.g, 802.11.n and now to 802.11.ac.Q: What kind of announcements for 802.11ac can we expect from ODMs at Computex?A: We had originally expected a slew of announcements to first start coming during Computex Taipei but it looks like our partners have been trying to one-up each other and launches were made starting in April, when Netgear announced a US$200 wireless router. We do still expect to see even more announcements in the router and gateway area during Computex.Originally we told the press and analysts to expect products to begin shipping sometime in the summer during the back-to-school timeframe, but now we're looking at early summer, if not spring, for a majority of these products to begin hitting the shelf. In fact, products already started shipping in May.The first products to ship are routers and gateways, with PCs coming shortly after. We thought PC products would ship late in the third quarter or maybe early in the fourth quarter but we're on track to pull that schedule in as well. Now potentially we'll have PC or client type devices with 802.11ac support shipping in the summer time.Q: Last year Broadcom was making a push for Wi-Fi Direct, which is a type of distributed Wi-Fi. Can you compare that rollout and market interest to what you are seeing with 802.11ac?A: Last year at Computex, Broadcom was pushing Wi-Fi Direct on portable devices and that technology was just getting going at the time. Now Wi-Fi Direct is fairly ubiquitous, with every device we ship having Wi-Fi direct software capabilities built into it.What we have been seeing with Wi-Fi Direct is a number of interesting usage cases developing, with most of them focusing on video. For example, one area is Wi-Fi Display, which allows you to take content such as a movie clip from a tablet or phone and push the content to a TV for viewing. The Wi-Fi Direct ecosystem realizes there are a number of ways this content can be moved directly between client devices, so there has been related increased demand to move the content from the network to the client wireless device, and that should spill over into demand for 5G Wi-Fi. Basically, you have video that needs to move over these links and that has precipitated the move to a faster bandwidth solution.Another big concept pushing 5G Wi-Fi demand is in-home video distribution. From a North America perspective, what we are seeing is a big shift where service providers such as AT&T are busy advertising and pushing the concept of the wireless set top box (STB).AT&T was the first carrier to really start offering wireless set top boxes, with its current product shipping with 802.11n. It is actually using our technology but it does have some limitations since the range is limited. If you are too far from the major access point you need to switch to a wireline connection. Also, the number of set top boxes a customer can have is limited to three units and some homes and in the US want to add 4-5 set top boxes.Now if you have one central distribution point that is based on the increased coverage of 802.11.ac wireless, this becomes a very attractive option to the carriers, because it offers all the virtues of the mobile set top box that they are pushing on TV while doing away with the need for any wireline connection. This offers the potential for faster installation times since they can install a wireless set top box incredibly fast. They don't have to have wires running into walls or into ceilings. Doing it wirelessly saves them a tremendous amount of money.So all the carriers are interested in offering a wireless set top box solution but some of them have been concerned about doing it in a huge way due to some of these range and bandwidth limitations associated with 802,11n. However, 5G Wi-Fi has been a huge lift to that segment of the market and we see the carriers gravitating to 802.11.ac as being the answer to some of the concerns they have. This push will be big and it will come from the carrier perspective rather than from a device perspective.Q: How do you expect 5G Wi-Fi products to be priced? For example, the first home routers were being offered for about US$200?A: We are also seeing launch prices at around US$200, and you can probably expect perhaps a $20-something step down once the back-to-school season arrives and another reset for the end-of-year holidays, when some more appreciable reductions will arrive based on new chipsets that we might have coming out or due to other savings makers might have to promote the end-of-year holidays.Q: How about 5G Wi-Fi on the client side?A: Each product category has its own cadence. The gateway market or the home router market has the fastest cadence. The PC market is typically a little bit longer. As I mentioned, we are now expecting to see PC products shipping with 5G Wi-Fi sometime in the third quarter. Optimistically we may even see some co-announcements made at Computex. It is still touch-and-go as to whether we can meet such an aggressive rollout. Finally, we would expect mobile phones and TVs to have a slower cadence. The first time we would expect to see these types of products is end-of-year, moving into first quarter 2013.Q: What about tablets?A: Tablets are an interesting area. Basically tablet development has been an off-shoot of smartphones, so OEMs have been using the same Wi-Fi solutions for tablets as they use for mobile phones. One characteristic of mobile phones though, is that there are space constraints so they cannot support multiple antennas. That is why you only see single-stream Wi-Fi technology on mobile phones. So if you look at what we see in the tablet market - and we have a huge market share in the tablet market - 100% of the Wi-Fi tablet solutions we have shipped up until now have been single stream. However, going back to what I said about increased demand for high-bandwidth video on tablets, vendors are realizing that tablets are big enough to support multiple antenna technology.Therefore, in the post Computex timeframe you can expect to see some tablet refreshes that feature two-stream Wi-Fi. Mind you, these will be still be 802.11.n solutions but the idea is the same. Users are demanding more throughput to support video applications. You can expect these products to be coming onto the market in the third quarter of this year and they will feature higher data throughput in the tablet space.Q: What about the power consumption of these products?A: For mobile devices, the key mode people worry about for Wi-Fi power consumption is standby mode. In that context, our two-stream solutions will consume the same amount of battery power as the single stream solution that we ship to mobile phones. If you look at power consumption in active mode, the two-stream solution does consume more power but then again you have to look at the total power consumption, since data is being transmitted much faster. Overall, the total power consumption is lower in active mode by about 25-30%.Q: For 5G Wi-Fi solutions, how many streams can we expect for tablets?A: How about we talk about the whole market. For the router solutions, you can expect to see three streams, while PC solutions will have two streams and handset solutions will continue to have one stream. As for tablets, the market is evolving but you can expect two-stream solutions in the first quarter of next year.Q: There have been reports that mobile device system makers are looking to take more control of their product platforms by having more control over the silicon inside them. Can you comment on how Broadcom views this trend?A: In general this is a good thing for us. Basically, the top tier players are doing this, players such as Apple, Samsung and perhaps even HTC. What we are seeing is that the applications processor is the area where customers have looked to differentiate their products and control their own destiny. This is where they are making their investment and the final devices are then targeted for the higher-end of the market. This is the portion of the market where the OEMs are trying to differentiate their products from the vanilla Android platform products that everyone is offering. And this trend has been outstanding for us from a connectivity perspective because when it comes to connectivity for these mobile devices, typically the OEMs will seek out best-in-class performance. And in this market, Broadcom has best-in-class connectivity. Just look at all the high-end phones in the market. They are all using Broadcom.Q: Can you provide a little more color on how OEMs are using Broadcom silicon to differentiate their products?A: For example, I spoke before about how there are Wi-Fi Direct software capabilities built into all Broadcom Wi-Fi solutions. Wi-Fi Direct is only a rudimentary kind of plumbing, in that it can establish a connection between two devices at a very basic level. Basically, it negotiates the handshaking protocol between two devices. That is what we provide. However, if you want to stream video from device one to device two, the application that decides how that is done and how it is processed by the user is typically handled by the OEM. They come up with the application code to make it as easy as possible for the consumer to do this - a very good example of this is AirPlay from Apple. It is Apple's application code that pushes content from one Apple device to another. The application layer is where the OEMs can differentiate. On a basic level though, it makes sense for all of those devices to be built on a standard wireless solution that is understood by all the devices. Having only one type of initial handshake rather than needing to support all different types of handshakes is much easier for the OEMs. And this should work across multiple types of devices, whether it is a tablet, handset or TV.This works well for us because in addition to being best in class for connectivity, Broadcom has the unique advantage of having wireless technology going into all three of these categories, making it easier for our partners to get connected using one set of similar code.Q: Are there any other wireless technologies we should be on the lookout for during Computex?A: One area we see a lot of interest is in the area of near field communications (NFC). The global banking industry has been getting a lot of attention in the handset space for this and this is an area where we are also participating. Like any other segment though, there has been a lot of churn around the mobile banking concept due to a chicken and egg issue - who wants to build infrastructure when there are no applications, and vice versa.However, the interesting thing we are seeing is that a whole new category of applications are appearing around NFC, where the concept of touch or a kind of proximal location is allowing fast connections between two devices. We are seeing a lot of pickup in this area as technology in areas like printers, consumer electronics, etc., is creating a pairing between a mobile handset and a TV or gaming device, or any other device for that matter, and that is driving the market and creating a lot of interest and enthusiasm outside of the mobile banking area.Michael Hurlston, senior VP and general manager, Wireless Combo Connectivity Line of Business at BroadcomPhoto: Company

Specializing in memory and storage solutions, Adata Technology has moved to pay more attention to repositioning its brand recognition. Creating synergy among company branches in different regions is part of Adata's re-branding efforts in an attempt to maintain a consistent image while adopting a localized sales strategy. Another is the company's efforts to gain more exposure and recognition in the high-performance market in order to solidify its brand identity.Digitimes recently had a chance to talk to Andy Chang, VP of Adata's channel business division, about the company's rebranding efforts and business focus. Chang also shared his views on the DRAM and NAND flash market trends. The following are excerpts of the conversation.RebrandingAdata has been promoting its corporate logo - Hummingbird - a move to unify the various brands behind one coherent identity. The effort has allowed the company to earn accolades as one of the world's most effective rebrands in the 8th annual 2012 Rebrand 100 Global awards.The move to reposition Adata's brand has also received positive feedback from its channel distribution partners. The 'Hummingbird' logo has helped the company increase its brand recognition and visibility.At Computex Taipei 2011, Adata officially announced its new brand identity along with the Hummingbird logo. At the same event this year, the company's booth design and exhibits will highlight the successful brand development efforts.Product highlights at Computex 2012At Computex Taipei 2012, Adata's exhibits will revolve around the concept of the company's Hummingbird logo. With the theme for the event being "The Dash to Infinity," the company will showcase new products as well as upgrades of existing products, which basically will provide of the company's product focus for 2012.Adata's booth at this year's Computex show will be mainly divided into three sections - portable hard drives and disk drives that are feature rich, performance-driven memory modules and cards, and storage solutions for industrial and enterprise customers - with the introduction of a new product naming system for the company's major product categories.Adata is showcasing a full range of its DashDrive-series external drives at the show. The series is divided into three groups - Elite, Durable and Choice - targeting different consumer segments. The DashDrive Elite series emphasizes its ultra-thin profile and elegant look, such as a gold-tone metal case, while the Choice segment designed for the mass-market tends to go for an attractive and stylish look. The DashDrive Durable series consists of devices that are shockproof and waterproof, and at the Computex show Adata will provide demonstrations to prove the durability of the products.Meanwhile, a lineup of Adata's internal storage solutions including memory modules, SSDs and SD cards will be exhibited at Computex Taipei 2012. The products are also divided into three series to differentiate their performance - Premier, Premier Pro and XPG - consisting of those supporting the latest interface standards including SATA 3 6Gbps, SD 3.0, and etc.Adata is also displaying its storage solutions for enterprise servers and industrial PCs, including those for web hosting data centers which are already shipping to enterprise customers.A special focus on high-end productsWhile providing a full range of memory and storage devices, Adata is paying particular attention on enhancing its high-end product portfolio as part of its marketing strategy. The company is aware that building flagship products successfully could be a strategic move to well position the identity of company products.High-end products don't necessarily make the largest contribution to Adata when it comes to sales volume. However, the company expects its high-end product portfolio to help create an image of Adata's products in the minds of consumers, which would have a positive effect on the company's other product segments.Adata has long-term commitment to branding its products, and expanding the company customer base to include customers at the top of the market pyramid will always be a goal. The company will continue developing its feature-rich and high-performance products designed to meet different customer needs.Views on DRAM, NAND flash marketsThe number of DRAM chipmakers is expected to be reduced to three from the current 4-5 makers, with the surviving companies no longer blindly expanding production capacity. The prospects for the DRAM industry are actually positive.Since 2012, DRAM prices have risen at a slow pace. Prices should continue their gradual recovery and are likely to see bigger increases later in 2012.As for NAND flash, prices have been negatively affected by suppliers' output ramp-ups as a result of their process technology transitions. However, prices are expected to become more stable in the third quarter when end-market demand picks up.Overall market conditions in 2012 should be better than last year despite ongoing concerns about the European crisis and other unfavorable macroeconomic influences. Moreover, the forthcoming Microsoft Windows 8 launch is expected to trigger a round of PC replacement and make a positive contribution to the memory industry.Adata over the next five yearsADATA in the past positioned itself as a dedicated DRAM company. In recent years, the company has been expanding its product mix. Sales of DRAM modules now account for only 40% of Adata's overall revenues, and the proportion is set to continue shrinking.With plans to expand its exposure in all market segments and become a one-stop shop for memory and storage solutions, Adata aims to be a total storage solutions company over the next five years.Andy Chang, VP of Adata's channel business divisionPhoto: Jessie Shen, Digitimes, May 2012

Micron Technology reportedly has reached the final stage of talks on the purchase of Elpida Memory. The possible merger of Micron and Elpida will help to restore a healthier supply-demand balance to the DRAM industry.A Japan Times report quoted unnamed sources as saying that Micron will have the right to negotiate exclusively to buy Elpida after offering a total of JPY220 billion (US$2.75 billion) for the bankrupt Japanese company. A final deal is expected to be concluded by the end of May 2012).A combined Micron/Elpida entity would not only balance against the two dominant DRAM manufacturers - Samsung Electornics and SK Hynix - but also help the industry head towards a healthier state. The merger between Micron and Elpida is also expected to better leverage support provided by their respective affiliates and production partners in Taiwan.Micron initially offered US$1.5 billion for Elpida - considered as a move to find out levels of acceptable prices for both seller and buyer. Hynix and Toshiba reportedly were among the other bidders, while Globalfoundries and China's SMIC were said to be interested to Elpida's Hiroshima plant.Private equity firms - China's Hony Capital and TPG Capital of the US - reportedly have also teamed up to bid for Elpida. While rumors continue to spread about the fate of the Japanese chipmaker, Micron is believed to have won the bid and has entered merger talks with Elpida.In a February report by IHS iSuppli, a possible merger between Micron and Elpida has the potential to dramatically redraw the competitive landscape of the DRAM space. The union between the two companies would catapult the newly consolidated entity to second place in the global DRAM market with a combined capacity of 374,000 wafer starts per month based on the latest available information, according to IHS.The Micron-Elpida entity would have a 28% share of worldwide DRAM manufacturing capacity, placing it just behind leader Samsung, currently with 433,000 WSPM or 33% share of global capacity, IHS said. Hynix would fall to third place given a 23% share of capacity, or 300,000 WSPM, IHS noted.The Micron-Elpida merger is also expected to consolidate and expand their respective partnerships with Taiwan-based DRAM firms including Nanya Technology, Powerchip Technology, Inotera Memories and Rexchip Electronics - a move to unite DRAM players from the US, Japan and Taiwan into an alliance to compete against their fellow Korean rivals.In the mobile DRAM marketplace, Samsung led with a 53.8% market share in the fourth quarter of 2011 followed by Hynix with 20.8%. Micron's merger with Elpida would have their combined share reach 24.3%, outpacing Hynix's. Acquiring Elpida would also allow Micron to cut into the supply chain of Apple. Elpida began supplying mobile RAM chips for Apple's smartphone and tablet devices in the second half of 2011.Micron said to be near acquisition of bankrupt ElpidaDigitimes file photo

NAND flash memory is among the key components used in today's popular consumer technology products. The birth of NAND flash could be credited to two Bell Labs researchers who fabricated the world's first floating-gate nonvolatile memory (NVM) memory device. Simon Sze was one of the inventors.Along with William Shockley's discovery of the transistor effect, and integrated circuits invented by Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce, Sze's invention with Dawon Kahng of floating-gate NVM devices was one of the major breakthroughs in semiconductor technology.Kahng and Sze proposed the first floating gate device in 1967, around the same time when IBM invented dynamic random access memory (DRAM) cells. IBM's computer memory breakthrough drew much attention actually, Sze recalled. DRAM memory grew its adoption rapidly in PCs during the 1970s, and has become a commodity type of chip.However, with consumer habits changing, the DRAM business is now encountering a shrinking market for traditional PCs. Sze indicated that the market for NAND flash chips had not been practically developed until the 1990s when mobile phones started to be widely used.NAND flash is one of the NVM types, which can keep stored data when a device's power is turned off, while DRAM functions more like the "working memory" in a computer, Sze said. Both have their own expertise to satisfy different market demands.Unlike DRAM chips that immediately replaced magnetic core chip technology as the main computer memory when first introduced, NVM memory devices were not commercialized until about 20 years after their debut, Sze observed.Floating-gate NVM devices were introduced in 1967, and first used in end products in 1984, Sze disclosed. The memory was adopted by Nintendo in its gaming devices to automatically retain the stored information so that players can move onto the next stage, Sze said. Floating-gate devices were also first equipped into BIOS chips to speed up the boot process for PCs.Floating-gate NVM memory started to see its wide adoption during the 1990s when demand for handsets and memory cards boomed, Sze pointed out. Memory cards using NAND flash for storing photographs began to pose a threat to the market for traditional film products, Sze added.The popularity of Apple's i-series products does mark a turning point for NVM memory, according to Sze. The market for NAND flash memory has expanded its size big enough to challenge that of the DRAM market. According to statistics, more than 30 billion electronic products using the float-gate memory have been shipped, and the total accumulated number will top 80 billion units within the next 10 years, said Sze.Looking forward, it is anticipated to see a new memory technology to replace floating-gate devices, Sze indicated. But the floating gate memory should maintain its presence for at least 20 years. A number of new "unified" memory devices - which come with high-speed, high-density and non-volatile features - are still in their early stages of development, Sze said.In addition, Sze commented that the market for NAND flash will be driven by its diversified applications - from digital cameras, flash drives to smartphones, SSDs and future technology products. Demand for NAND flash will boom thanks to the memory's high density, low power, non-volatile, rewritable and small size.Sze also suggested that the Taiwan semiconductor industry should enhance its relationship with China in order to stay competitive. The government should adopt a more open policy to attract talents and investment as the development of the island's economy and industry should not be disrupted by political issues, Sze urged.Sze made the comments during his recent presentation at National Chiao-Tung University (NCTU), Taiwan.Simon Sze, inventor of floating-gate NVM devicesPhoto: Josephine Lien, Digitimes, March 2012

Long-term solar material supply contracts seem to stabilize the financial performance of solar firms during good times, but increase the magnitude of losses during down times.Before 2011, the solar industry experienced shortages of polysilicon. This pushed the price of polysilicon to reach above US$100/kg at one point. Fighting for material was a must for downstream solar firms. During the years of shortage, solar firms constantly needed reassuring measures to obtain continuous flow of material. Signing long-term supply contracts became the solution for this shortage problem.The long-term supply contracts have become one of the reasons that solar firms have been suffering net losses. The firms signed contracts when the price of polysilicon was relatively high, compared to the spot price now.Chihheng Liang, Digitimes Research analyst and author of new a report PV 2012-Expectations for the global solar market, indicated that spot price of polysilicon in Greater China last week (April 23-27) was US$22.5/kg and the spot price of polysilicon two months ago (February 20-24) was US$29.5/kg.This means the spot price of polysilicon dropped 23.7% in two months.In recent weeks, Europe-based material suppliers have been reportedly considering filing lawsuits against Taiwan-based downstream customers for failing to oblige to their supply contracts. Taiwan-based firms have been considering fighting the lawsuits collectively and asking the government to help.Taiwan-based solar cell maker Neo Solar Power (NSP) recently announced its financial performance for first-quarter 2012. The firm reported net losses of NT$1.817 billion (US$62 million) which included write-offs of losses incurred from long-term material supply contracts.Spot price of polysilicon hits US$22.5/kg in recent weeksPhoto: Digitimes file photo

India has been seen as one of the markets with most potential for the solar industry as demand in Europe weakens. A recent article from The Economist, "Solar Power In India: Waiting for the Sun", has stated that the India market might just boom.The article indicated that power firms in India that produce electricity by burning coal have been forced to buy pricier coal because "the state local monopoly is unable to dig up enough of the black stuff [coal]". This can become an incentive for power companies to turn to solar power. The cost of solar PV systems has been falling since third-quarter 2010, and compared to the pricier coal, it is possible that the price of solar in India will be similar to conventional energy by 2016.Furthermore, according to financial institutions, the government has vowed to install 20GW by 2022. Current installations in India are about 1GW.According to PV 2012-Expectations for the global solar market, a new report from Digitimes Research, India's installations in 2012 are likely to reach 1.4GW because both subsidies from the federal government and the Gujarat state government will increase. In addition, new installations will be added in states such as Rajasthan and Karnataka. These states have been providing lucrative subsidies for solar PV installations, according to Digitimes Research.Nevertheless, there are some concerns about the solar market in India. According to The Economist, grid connections and shortages of water to wash panels are two of the most common concerns. Also, despite lucrative subsidies provided by state governments, the federal government uses "reverse auctions" to promote solar PV installations. Reverse auctions mean giving operating rights to the solar firms that can produce power at the lowest cost. Many people doubt that this mechanism will help the firms to make money.Digitimes Research noted that the solar market in India is quite different from other emerging solar markets such as the US and Japan. The solar market in India is highly price-competitive, and hence has been filled with low-price products, similar to in the China market.This cause a backlash for solar firms, but may also mean that grid parity can be achieved in India sooner than expected.India government vows to have 20GW of solar installations by 2022Photo: Digitimes file photo

The US government has been taking up anti-dumping and anti-tariff investigations against China-based solar firms. According to LA Times, the US government recently announced the import tariff of 2.6-4.7% on China-made solar products. A second round of tariff may be announced by the Department of Commerce in May, said paper.China-based solar firms, however, have been finding ways to avoid paying the tariff such as transfering solar cell orders to Taiwan. Taiwan-based solar cell makers have been experiencing rising capacity utilization rates but indicated that orders from China-based firms often have unprofitably low quotes. China does not want to give up on the US market because it is one of the fastest growing solar markets in the world.According to a new report from Digitimes Research, "PV 2012 - Expectations for the global solar market," growth of solar demand in the US has been shot over 100% every year since 2009. Furthermore, total demand in the US is likely to reach 3.8GW in 2012.The LA Times coverage indicated that some tariff advocates believe this ruling will help to create jobs in the green sector in the US. However, others noted that most green jobs in the US are in installation, sales and distribution of solar PV systems. The tariff on China-made solar goods is likely to increase cost for solar PV systems and weaken the competitiveness of US-based installation firms.The global solar supply chain is interconnected. Despite China's strength in producing solar cells and modules in large volume, the US has been dominating the global solar market in polysilicon and solar equipment. If the capex of China-based solar firms fall due to the tariffs, negative impacts will hit polysilicon and solar equipment firms in the US. In addition, increasing the cost of solar PV systems will likely become a deterrent for customers in the US to switch to solar.

The Taiwan government recently announced a plan to increase electricity prices in May 2012. Compared to a country like Germany with average electricity price of NT$8/kWh, Taiwan's average electricity price of NT$2.67/kWh seems low. Also, the Taiwan government's aim to have solar PV installations of 3.1GW by 2030 is also quite low. In another words, in 18 years, Taiwan plans to add 3.1GW of solar PV system installations, while Germany added 3GW of new solar PV system installations in December 2011 alone. The goal seems a bit lazy on the government part as Taiwan is one of the major countries that produce solar wafers and cells.Taiwan has a population around 23 million people and land about 35,000 square kilometers. Within this small area, Taiwan has three running nuclear power plants in addition to traditional power generating facilities. In addition to the low electricity price and lack of effort from the government to promote solar PV system installations, residential conditions, high interest rates on loans, and lack of education on solar PV knowledge are likely to prevent people in Taiwan switching to solar power.Many of the people in Taiwan live in apartment buildings, such as those in New Taipei, the most populous city of the nation. This means they do not have their own roofs. For a household that wants to use solar PV systems, it may need to obtain permission from the building committee or most of its neighbors in the same building to use the rooftop for solar PV system installations. The trouble of going through this permission seeking process is often a deterrent.In many parts of Taiwan, such as New Taipei's neighboring port city, Keelung, weather conditions form another deterrent. Keelung has the lowest sunshine hours in Taiwan. This means it may not be profitable for households to install solar PV systems despite the high feed-in-tariff rate of NT$7.30-9.50/kWh.Most importantly, Taiwan's financial institutions do not have special interest rates for solar PV system installations. The government currently provides special loans for banks to finance large-size solar PV system installations and the return of investment on solar PV systems is about 5.25%. But for individual systems, which are more suitable for people living in the cities, the interest rate of the loan is about 4.08%. The interest rate plus processing fee of 2.5% charged by the banks, this investment will incur losses.According to Chihheng Liang, author of Digitimes Research's new report "PV 2012 - Expectations for the global solar market," customers that want to install solar PV systems need to pay all fees for the next 20 years in one payment. This means customers need to make sure the buildings they live in will last at least 20 years. The most urgent problem is that people in Taiwan do not have enough knowledge about solar PV systems.Lack of encouragement from government results in low solar PV installations in TaiwanPhoto: Digitimes file photo

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) could ramp up its 28nm production capacity at a much faster pace than older 40/45nm and 65nm process nodes, according to Digitimes Research analyst Nobunaga Chai. To make such speculation about yield problems with TSMC's 28nm processes is unfair, said Chai, adding that the foundry is actually improving the process yield rate within its expectations.When TSMC started ramping up its 40/45nm production capacity, it took 5-6 quarters to have the process contribute 10% to company revenues, Chai pointed out. As for 65nm, the period was shorter but still longer than three quarters allowing the process to account for 10% of TSMC's revenues, Chai said.The newer 28nm technology started generating revenues in the fourth quarter of 2011, and the sales ratio is estimated at about 5% in the following quarter, Chai noted. It is anticipated to see TSMC significantly ramp up its 28nm production capacity later in 2012, Chai believes.TSMC's current yield rate on its 28nm processes is not poor at all, but maybe has not yet reached a certain level that is able to persuade the company to expand capacity aggressively, Chai indicated. Despite being cautious, TSMC's 28nm expansion plans have been kept on track, Chai said.In addition, let's not forget that 28nm is still new in the industry, Chai said. Making chips using the process is still not stable and some companies recognize it is a risk to their products, Chai observed. Apple, for instance, still uses 45nm to manufacture its newest A5X chips.TSMC previously had yield problems with its 40/45nm process technology, and saw the ramp-up schedule interrupted. Revenues from the nodes accounted for as little as 1% in the first half of 2009. The proportion climbed slightly to 4% in the third quarter, and finally approached 10% in the last quarter of the year.Around mid-2009, Rick Tsai resigned from his position as TSMC CEO, with chairman Morris Chang returning to the helm. Later in the year, TSMC hired its former VP of R&D Shang-Yi Chiang to again lead its R&D.TSMC in October 2011 entered volume production for its 28nm processes. Sales of 28nm accounted for 2% of TSMC's revenues in the fourth quarter of the year.Chang remarked previously that TSMC's 28nm process technology would play an important source of company growth in 2012. TSMC: Sales contribution made by 65nm during ramp-up 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 40/45nm 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 65nm 0% 1% 3% 7% 10% 15% 18% 25% 27% 23% Source: Company, compiled by Digitimes, April 2012 TSMC: Sales contribution made by 40/45nm during ramp-up 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 28nm 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 40/45nm 1% 1% 4% 9% 14% 16% 17% 21% 22% 26% 27% 27% Source: Company, compiled by Digitimes, April 2012 TSMC: Sales contribution made by 28nm during ramp-up 4Q11 1Q12(e) 28nm 2% 5% Source: Company, compiled by Digitimes, April 2012