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Oct 18, 16:03
Commodity DRAM prices likely to fall 15-20% in 1Q22
Following peak shipments in the second and third quarters, the memory sector has entered a period of correction in the fourth quarter of 2021 that may last for 1-2 quarters, and commodity DRAM prices, in particular, will face higher downward pressure than other segments and may fall 15-20% in the first quarter of 2022, according to industry sources.
Makers in Apple's supply chain have seen no major changes to orders for iPhone 13 devices despite speculation about the US vendor looking to cut production for the new smartphones. The memory sector is entering a period of correction, with commodity DRAM prices likely to fall 15-20% in first-quarter 2022. Rising components, production and logistic costs are heaping pressure on notebook vendors.
The car industry has been plagued by component shortages, and automotive IC shortages are likely to last till at least 2023. TSMC's plan to build a mature process fab in Japan comes as good news for a semiconductor sector yearning for more capacity supply. And PanelSemi CEO Ting Chin-lung is making efforts to materialize his concept of "panel semiconductor."
Chipmakers including MediaTek, Qualcomm, and Broadcom are set to ramp up their output for Wi-Fi 6/6E chip solutions looking to embrace booming demand for such chips and increase their market shares in 2022, according to industry sources.
The global shortage of automotive ICs is likely to last beyond next year until 2023 or even 2024, and automakers worldwide are trying all possible means to counter, according to industry sources.
Many IDMs and pure-play foundries, including second-tier ones, are all poised to expand their fab capacities sparking concerns that the arrival of the additional capacities could result in a glut of processed wafers.
Chinese panel makers have become the world's largest LCD makers after over a decade of fierce market competition, while South Korean panel makers have chosen to gradually withdraw from the LCD market and turn their attention to OLED.
Semiconductor materials distributors including Topco Scientific, Wah Lee Industrial and Niching Industrial are all set to see their fourth-quarter revenues stay high despite uncertainty emerging in the outlook for end-market demand, according to industry sources.
The distributors have seen clear order visibility through the end of 2021 or even early 2022, allowing them to sustain strong shipment momentum after posting impressive revenue gains in the third quarter.
TSMC has narrowed its revenue growth outlook this year to 24%, based on its forecast of 4.5% sales rise at the midpoint of the foundry house's latest guidance for fourth-quarter 2021. Despite a media report's claims that Apple is cutting its production goals for iPhone 13 seies for 2021, components suppliers have disclosed hey have not seen any reductions in orders from the client for the new smartphones. In China, manufacturers are making contingency plans to cope with power restrictions, which they expect will become a long-term policy of the country.
TSMC expects to post revenues of between US$15.4 billion and US$15.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, which is a 4.5% sequential increase at the midpoint. Gross margin and operating margin for the quarter are estimated at 51-53% and 39-41%, respectively.
Supply chains are moving to cope with China's power reductions in one way or another, with the prospect the restrictions may become a long-term policy and will inevitably drive up production costs, according to industry sources.
Uneven inventories across chipmakers will continue to challenge device vendors and OEMs in the fourth quarter of 2021, despite uncertainty emerging in demand visibility, according to sources at Taiwan-based IC and component distributors.