Although global notebook demand will decelerate in 2022 and 2023, their shipments will regain momentum starting 2024, while the global smartphone market is expected to enjoy shipment growth every year from 2022-2026. Global tablet shipments will see a moderate growth in 2021, but will shrink in each of the next five years starting 2022.
China government has always attached great importance to advances of the semiconductor sector, but semiconductors' vital role to industrial and national development is clear amid the country's trade war with the US. This Digitimes Research Special Report reviews the results of China's efforts to build its semiconductor ecosystem during the 13th 5-year Plan (2015-2020), and looks at the plans set out in its 14th 5-year Plan (2021-2025) to raise China's IC self-sufficiency.
Notebook and tablet shipments are both expected to increase from a year ago in 2020 due to demand from stay-at-home activities, while those of smartphones will slip. In 2021, notebook shipments will stay flat on year, but tablet will decline, while smartphone volumes will rise thanks to 5G's commercialization.
The coronavirus outbreak has resulted in labor shortages and shipment disruptions in China's supply chain, but Digitimes Research believes if the epidemic gets under control, China-based top-4 smartphone brands' shipments are expected to drop 19.5% on year in the first quarter of 2020, while smartphone AP shipments to China will fall 11.4% on year during the period.
The coronavirus outbreak has disrupted production and weakened consumer confidence, with all ICT sectors bracing for major declines in shipments. Digitimes Research has conducted analyses on three mobile device sectors, namely notebooks, smartphones and tablets in the wake of the outbreak. The Special Report offers the latest updates about production statuses and shipments outlook for 2020 for each of the three sectors.
Notebooks, smartphones and tablets are expected to see mixed shipment performances in 2019. Notebook shipments will grow mildly while smartphones and tablets will both see shipments drop. In 2020, only smartphone shipments are expected to grow.
According to Digitimes Research's observation, with global market demand on a moderate increase in second-quarter 2019, Taiwan-based semiconductor foundries showed recovery. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) and Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation (VIS) together generated total revenues of US$9.13 billion in the second quarter, up 8.9% on quarter but down 2.5% on year.