Since late August, China's "trade-in" policy has gradually revitalized demand for LCD TV panels, easing the decline in prices. As a result, global TV shipments are expected to see slight growth in 2024. Reports suggest that China's subsidies may continue through 2025, potentially driving further demand for LCD panel restocking.
LCD TV panel prices poised for a potential increase
Prices for LCD TV panels have remained stable recently. However, the "trade-in for new" policy has led panel manufacturers to consider raising the price. While most in the industry expect price increases in January or February 2025, some reports suggest price raises could happen as early as late December 2024.
Despite older panel production lines being phased out in 2025, new production capacity is entering the market, keeping supply higher than demand. Yet, China's subsidy program, if renewed in the first half of 2025, could spur short-term demand. As manufacturers raise capacity utilization to about 80% for profitability, major TV companies note that while it's "unlikely for panel prices to drop," any price increases will require further observation.
China's subsidy program has significantly boosted TV demand, particularly for larger screens and high-end models like Mini LED backlit TVs. Sales surged during the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day holiday, and Single's Day shopping seasons, exceeding expectations for LCD TV panel demand.
Demand for TVs exceeding 75 inches remains robust, driving average screen sizes upward in China. Panel manufacturers are actively adjusting strategies to meet this demand. As the year comes to an end, many brands and manufacturers are on track to meet ambitious sales targets, further boosting market confidence.
Supply constraints amid decreasing demand remain in the IT panel industry
In the LCD monitor segment, seasonal factors have contributed to a contraction in demand. Both commercial and gaming monitor sales have declined, leading brands to take a cautious approach to orders. On the supply side, despite production controls, heightened competition and new production capacity from emerging players have loosened the supply-demand balance.
As a result, research firm Sigmaintell reports that prices for mainstream LCD monitor panels continued to decline in late November, with price drops expected to narrow in December.
With promotional season inventory stocking coming to an end, notebook brands are grappling with high inventory levels and have begun limiting procurement orders. This has led to an overall decline in demand for notebook panels, particularly in the lower-end segment. However, the mid-to-high-end and gaming notebook markets remain relatively resilient.
Strong demand for TVs and mid-to-high-end notebook panels drives higher production rates
On the supplier's end, strong demand from the TV and mid-to-high-end notebook markets has pushed panel makers' utilization rates above expectations. Yet, thin margins in notebook panel production have led manufacturers to adopt a "build-to-order" approach to manage supply. Currently, the notebook panel market remains balanced in terms of supply and demand. Sigmaintell noted that mainstream notebook panel prices have remained stable, though prices for mid-to-high-end panels have seen slight declines due to competitive pressures.
Article translated by Heidi Tai
