Over the last six months TV supply chains have been talking up Quantum Dot (QD) TVs, stating that many TV vendors aim to release new units in 2015 to compete in the high-end TV segment in conjunction with Ultra HD and OLED. While there have been releases primarily by China-, Japan- and Korea-based vendors, supply chains still have low expectations for 2105 as vendors are still testing the market with various products and have yet to enter the busy TV purchasing season.Shipment estimates for Ultra HD (4K) enhanced-color LCD TVs using QD technology in 2015 are 1.3 million while overall 4K TVs are expected to reach 40 million to represent approximately 20% of global TV shipments. Curved OLED TV shipments are expected to reach 800,00 in 2015. QD TVs without 4K resolution are also on the market but have yet to spike in sales due to the technology being relatively new.LCD TVs based on QD technology, due to comparable color performance compared with OLED TVs but much lower production costs, are expected to be a major driving force of the TV market until 2018 when OLED TVs are completely commercialized, according to the Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (IEK) under Taiwan's government-sponsored Industrial Technology Research Institute. For 55-inch units, QD TVs are about 30-35% more expensive than non-QD units whereas OLED TVs are about five times the amount. It will take Korea panel makers roughly three more years to decrease OLED material costs for TV panels in order for the technology to be affordable for mainstream markets, said IEK.However, these industry estimates only seem to point to QD having a competitive edge through 2018, which is also when Digitimes Research expects Korea panel makers to drastically increase yields for OLED TV panels. Taking this into consideration, plus the current lack of explosive growth for QD TV displays, coupled with development from major display makers LG Display and Samsung Display for OLED TV panels, seem to suggest that QD's position in the market is not one that will surpass OLED, but rather will be an alternative solution in the high-end market over the next few years.AUO believes QD technology will be a new focal point for TV vendors in 2015 in addition to new applications for Ultra HD such as HDR. AUO, however, is still in negotiations with customers and expects to begin mass producing the technology in the second half of 2015.Samsung Electronics has also been quoted as saying it believes 4K QD TVs will have a stronger presence in the TV industry over OLED during 2015 as OLED costs remain high, but yet has not expressed confidence in the technology being the next growth driver for TV vendors.Consumers can expect to see a new lineup of TV options in the second half of 2015 ranging from new 4K units, HDR TVs and QD TVs, but unless leading TV vendors Samsung and LG popularize the technology and make it more cost efficient it may only be a preference for consumers rather than the next "big thing" despite its superior viewing quality. Heading into the second half of 2015 will be a major turning point for the TV industry nevertheless as the amount of higher-end TV technologies will increase.
As Samsung Electronics is expected to continue pushing AMOLED panels into mid-range handsets it will continue to decrease orders for touch panels equipped with LCD panels in 2015, which in turn is expected to affect Korea makers' revenues and profits during the year, according to Digitimes Research.Samsung began decreasing orders in 2014 due to this trend and because it saw a slowdown with relevant handset and tablet orders. The company is expected to continue decreasing orders in 2015, with an estimated purchase amount expected to fall to less than KRW2 trillion (US$2 billion), down from about KRW3.5 trillion in 2013 and KRW2.2 trillion in 2014.South Korea makers' total revenues from touch panels purchased from Samsung have already dropped from KRW2.6 trillion in 2013 to KRW1.5 trillion in 2014, and are expected to further decline in 2015, said Digitimes Research.For LCDs equipped with touch panels, Samsung's main suppliers include Iljin Display, ELK (Electro Luminescence Korea), Melfas, SMAC (Smart Mobile Application Company), Synopex and Taeyang Electronics.Samsung meanwhile is focused on its Super AMOLED displays that feature on-cell touch AMOLED (OCTA) technology. Samsung is moving further toward bendable and flexible AMOLED technologies, but IIjin Display is actively pursuing flexible touch applications in order to meet new demand from Samsung, which Digitimes Research believes will give the company a competitive advantage over competitors.
China makers' production capacity for small- to medium-size AMOLED panels is expected to increase 373% in 2017 compared with what it is in 2015 as makers continue to invest in new facilities and capacity expansion, according to Digitimes Research.As of 2014 Taiwan makers held a larger production capacity over China makers but as investments and expanded production at 6G and below facilities continue from China makers, their production capacity will spike 373% to give them the global number two spot behind Korea makers in terms of overall small- to medium-size AMOLED capacity.In Taiwan, AU Optronics (AUO) currently has the strongest position in developing AMOLED panels, and the company has a base in Singapore with some of the latest equipment, giving the company strong yields.In China, BOE is pushing forth investments into small- to medium-size AMOLED panels in addition to OLED TV panels, while China Star Optoelectronics Technology (CSOT) will allocate 6G facilities in Wuhan for small- to medium-size LTPS TFT LCD and AMOLED displays.Tianma Microelectronics, Everdisplay (EDO) and GoVisionox (GVO) are also investing in AMOLED facilities, said Digitimes Research. Additionally, Truly Optoelectronics is expected to purchase old 4.5G AMOLED production facilities from Samsung Display, giving the company a total of 10 lines for small-, medium- and large-size AMOLED panels.
Since the first curved-panel LCD monitor model was launched in the second half of 2014, the price gap between curved models and flat-panel ones has narrowed to as low as 18%, and as prices are expected to further drop and additional vendors will join the market in the second half of 2015, global demand for curved-panel LCD monitors will take off in the year, according to Digitimes Research.Vendors are eyeing the technology due to its aesthetics in addition to the benefits the new technology has for entertainment such as gaming. Additionally, due to price reductions curved units are now becoming the standard for newer uits released in the market, with vendors such as Samsung Electronics releasing various units with 21:9 aspect ratio and higher resolutions.Acer recently showcased new 34- and 35-inch curved LCD monitors at Computex 2015 while Asustek Computer displayed new 34-inch technology as they aim to bump up their presence in the large-size, curved monitor market in the second half of 2015, noted Digitimes Research.
The global top-five notebook brand vendors together achieved an on-month shipment growth of 14%, but an on-year drop of 15%, while the top-three ODMs together had 5% on-month growth, but 9% on-year drop, all weaker than Digitimes Research's original forecast.Digitimes Research expects the top-five notebook vendors and the top-three ODMs to continue suffering from weaker-than-expected performance in June.Digitimes Research believes their weak performances in May were mainly because of poor demand for notebooks. Vendors trying to reduce their inventory to welcome the launch of new Windows 10-based notebooks was a minor factor in the decline.Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard (HP) both enjoyed 20-40% on-month shipment growth in May, but still suffered declines compared to the same month a year ago. Acer had an on-year shipment decline over 20% and Asustek over 40% in May, the worst among the top-five brand vendors. However, Dell had a slight shipment growth compared to a year ago.As for the top-three ODMs, Compal Electronics had the best on-month shipment performance in May, but its shipments were weaker than Digitimes Research's original forecast. Wistron's shipments in May dropped around 7% on month, while Quanta Computer had about 5% on-month growth.Compared to a year ago, Quanta's shipments in May were at about the same level, while Compal and Wistron both had declines.
May average retail price for 7W LED light bulbs (equivalent to 40W incandescent ones) in the China market increased 8.6% on month to CNY39 (US$6.3), while that for 9W models (equivalent to 60W incandescent ones) rose 3.4% to CNY39.4, according to Digitimes Research.Average retail prices for 40W- and 60W-equivalent LED light bulbs in the Japan market in May stood at JPY1,760 (US$14.0) and JPY2,839 respectively, with the former growing 2.3% on month and the latter falling 0.5%, Digitimes Research indicated.May average retail prices for 40W- and 60W-equivalent LED light bulbs in other markets were: KRW9,830 (US$8.9, down 2.4% on month) and KRW14,186 (up 0.4%) in South Korea; US$19.7 (down 1%) and US$18.4 (down 4.7%) in the US; EUR9.4 (US$10.5, down 5.1%) and EUR14 (down 1.4%) in Europe.Philips 40W-equivalent and 60W-equivalent models for sale in the South Korea market had the highest average lumen-price ratios of 97.2lm/US$ and 117.6lm/US$ respectively in May. In terms of luminous efficiency, Toshiba 40W- and 60-equivalent LED light bulbs available in the Japan market had the highest average levels of 81.3lm/W and 105.1lm/W respectively.
Acquiring Broadcom will enable Avago Technologies to beat fellow fabless chip companies MediaTek and AMD, and become the world's second-largest fabless IC supplier in terms of revenues, according to Digitimes Research.With the acquisition, Avago will be able to enhance its product line and target a wide range of market sectors including front-end servers and data centers, mobile devices and wearable products, said Digitimes Research. Besides, with a strengthened product portfolio, Avago is ready to seize opportunities in the Internet of Things (IoT) sector.Avago specializes in the development of radio-frequency components and power amplifiers for use mainly in smartphones. Avago entered the storage chip market by acquiring LSI in 2014. With the upcoming acquisition of Broadcom, Avago expanded further its offerings to include wire and wireless chips, Digitimes Research observed.Avago recently announced the company will pay US$17 billion in cash and US$20 billion in stock to acquire Broadcom. The acquisition is expected to complete by the end of the first quarter, 2016.The acquisition will also make a positive contribution to Avago's customer portfolio by being a major supplier of Samsung Electronics and Apple, Digitimes Research believes.
Lighting is a major application of UV (ultraviolet) LED currently and 385nm (spectral wavelength) UV-A LED is competitive with mercury-vapor lamps in terms of performance-cost ratio while 365nm UV-A LED is expected to increase in power output by 84.8% and decrease in production cost by 71% during 2014-2016, according to Digitimes Research.Prices for UV LED are in negative correlation with wavelength because the shorter the wavelength, the more difficult the production, Digitimes Research indicated. For example, prices for a 400nm UV LED chip and a 365nm one are twice and 30 times, respectively, that for a blue-light LED chip. In addition, UV LED entails much higher equipment cost. For example, cost for a MOCVD set used to produce 4-inch blue-light LED epitaxial wafers stands at US$940,000 and one for producing UV LED wafers costs US$2.6-3.2 million.External quantum efficiency (an indicator of LED luminous effect) of UV LED drops along with decrease in wavelength, standing at 50% for 385nm UV-A LED, 30% for 365nm UV-A LED, 12% for 270-280nm UV-C LED and 3% for 250nm UV-C LED.Although UV-C LED (200-275nm) has comparatively high production cost and low external quantum efficiency, it is in growing application to sterilization and medical purposes. Demand for UV-C LED will take off when yield rates in production rise to reduce prices to an acceptable level.
In addition to its cooperation with Elitegroup Computer Systems (ECS) to launch an 11.6-inch inexpensive notebook priced at US$179 for the education market, Microsoft is planning to partner with Acer and Lenovo to release a series of low-cost Windows 10 notebooks between mid-August and the end of the fourth quarter.The Windows 10 notebooks are an 11.6-inch notebook (US$169) and a 14-inch clamshell-type notebook (US$199) from Acer and a 14-inch convertible Yoga notebook (US$249) from Lenovo. These devices will be manufactured by Inventec, and target mainly against Chromebooks.For 2015, although Microsoft does not wish to continue the price-cutting strategy from the previous year to defend Chromebook's penetration, the software giant is still being forced to release even cheaper notebook solutions in order to match Chromebooks which continue to see their prices dropping.The three notebooks are expected to bring Windows 10-based notebook price points to a new low. Instead of Intel's Bay Trail-T CR processors, which are broadly used by entry-level devices, these machines are using higher-end Broadwell processors, showing Microsoft's aggressive support for the projects.However, Digitimes Research believes Microsoft's moves only show the software giant is capable of supporting inexpensive notebooks, but it will not have much effort in stopping the growth of Chromebooks.Another key point of the strategic project is that Inventec, which is only major notebook orders from HP, will re-establish its ODM partnership with Acer after three years.Digitimes Research estimates that the two notebook models from Acer will boost Inventec's notebook shipments by over 500,000 units in the second half, but the inexpensive Windows 10-based Yoga notebook will have limited shipments in 2015 as its mass shipments may not begin until mid-fourth quarter. Despite a limited contribution, the partnership will still help link Inventec with Lenovo in the notebook industry.
There will be an estimated 1.368 billion smartphones shipped globally in 2015, growing 13.6% on year, according to Digitimes Research.In terms of operating system, Android will account for 76.3% of shipments, iOS 18.1%, Windows Phone and Windows 10 together 4.4% and BlackBerry 0.7%, Digitimes Research indicated.Samsung Electronics will be the largest vendor accounting for 25% of shipments, followed by Apple with 18.1%, Lenovo 6.1%, Huawei Device 5.4%, LG Electronics 5%, Xiaomi Technology 4.2%, TCL Communication Technology 3.5% and Microsoft Mobile 3%.