Trump's April 2 tariffs are not a transitional measure but core to his second-term ideology, marking a fundamental shift from globalization to isolationism and protectionism that extends beyond economic policy.
Despite positioning these measures as negotiation leverage, the tariffs will likely impose significant costs across American society.
Initial estimates from investment firms suggested gradual implementation over a year would allow negotiation time, but Trump's rushed policy could raise average US tariff levels to century-high rates.
A protracted trade war benefits no one. The "Rose Garden Tariffs," if maintained long-term, risk triggering global stagflation and potentially pushing both US and EU economies into recession.
Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" affecting approximately 180 trading partners has drawn widespread global criticism. The Guardian noted Trump's reversal of decades of US free trade policy, while the New York Times reported the measures exceeded many economists' expectations.
CNN warned Trump is escalating the global trade war, increasing economic burdens on Americans, and potentially driving the US toward a "painful recession."
According to BBC analysis, countries most significantly affected by the reciprocal tariffs include China (34%), Taiwan (32%), the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Japan, South Korea, and several Southeast Asian nations.
The White House executive order outlined three objectives: correcting unfair trade practices, increasing revenue, and strengthening negotiation leverage while protecting US sovereignty and economic security.
Implementation includes three simultaneous approaches: global reciprocal tariffs, country-specific tariffs, and industry tariffs aimed at replacing subsidy-based industrial policy. Steel, aluminum, copper, gold, and automobiles are excluded from reciprocal tariffs, while timing remains unclear for previously suggested chip tariffs.
Historical parallels exist with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised US tariffs by 20%, eventually reaching nearly 60% by 1932. This contributed to intensified trade disputes and accelerated US economic decline, preceding the Great Depression.
In Trump's second term, fiscal balance pressures have led to revenue-generating measures. With spending cuts proving difficult and controversies surrounding layoffs led by Elon Musk's DOGE continuing, Trump has chosen tariffs as a means to encourage domestic manufacturing.
Vietnam and Thailand have shown initial willingness to compromise by purchasing more US energy and food products while lowering their import tariffs on competitive US goods to reduce their trade surplus.
However, the EU, China, and Canada have firmly announced retaliatory measures. Foreign analysts now estimate US recession probability at approximately 40%, with global economic growth potentially falling from 3% to 2%, depending on trade partners' retaliatory actions and economic stimulus measures.
Article translated by Vyra Wu and edited by Jack Wu
