Suppliers have seen utilization rates for Apple MacBooks cut in half in the second half of the year compared with the same period in 2022, indicating a sluggish second half of 2023 for the notebook industry, according to industry sources.
Although some brand vendors such as Dell are still confident in the second half, the supply chain generally remains conservative.
During Apple's earnings call for the last quarter, it estimated revenue from iPads and Macs this quarter would see a double-digit on-year decline, due to the high base in third-quarter 2022.
The MacBook supply chain pointed out that momentum in the first half of this year was weak but has slightly improved in the second half. Still, utilization rates have dropped by 40-50% compared with the 2022.
Since many of Apple's components require suppliers to perform vertical integration, utilization rates not only impact revenue but also have a more significant impact on gross margin compared with other brand customers.
Apple initiated inventory controls later than other brands, not starting until the beginning of 2023. As a result, while other brands have lowered their channel inventories to a healthy level, Apple may still have high excess inventory on hand, leading Apple to experience a double-digit on-year revenue decline and prompting it to halve its order pull-ins.
Other manufacturers are also being impacted by the overall weak economic environment. Notebook component makers said there will be no peak season in the third quarter, but it will still be the best quarter for shipment performance this year. Shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to fall 30% compared with the third. Improvement is not expected until first-quarter 2024.
Notebook ODMs Quanta Computer, Wistron, and Inventec all saw their August shipments and revenue perform better than expected.
Quanta shipped 4.6 million notebooks in August, 800,000 more than in July. Wistron shipped 1.7 million notebooks in August, a sequential increase of 100,000 units. Inventec also shipped 100,000 more notebooks in August, reaching 1.6 million.
While Wistron estimates its shipments to continue to increase in September, Quanta and Inventec both expect their September shipments to remain flat or fall.
Supply chain players anticipate industry shipments to remain flat or increase in September, attributed to preparations for China's Golden Week.
Looking to the fourth quarter, other than Wistron, which expects shipments to remain flat or slightly grow, other ODMs have said visibility is low. ODMs estimate overall shipments for the year will fall by 10-20%.
Article translated by Eifeh Strom
