According to TrendForce, NAND flash ASPs will continue to fall but at a slower 5-10% rate in the second quarter of 2023, and whether prices continue to fall in 2H23 will depend on demand.
Despite chip suppliers' efforts to reduce production, the market remains oversupplied due to low demand for servers, smartphones, and notebooks. The ability of NAND flash suppliers to reduce production further is essential for supply and demand to return to market equilibrium. The memory ASPs may rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023, TrendForce said.
The majority of PC OEMs have effectively liquidated their component stockpiles and are now preparing for mid-year sales events. Suppliers are lowering costs to clear out their PCIe Gen 3 SSD inventories, which are being phased out gradually. Meanwhile, PCIe Gen 4 SSD prices continue to decline due to a slow intake of new customer orders. The continued drop in QLC product prices in the first quarter of 2023 has dragged down TLC product prices, and there is little room for further price declines in the second quarter. While it is unknown whether demand will recover, TrendForce forecast that prices for client SSDs will fall by 5-10% in the second quarter of 2023.
Meanwhile, drops in enterprise SSD prices are expected to narrow to 8-13% in the second quarter, TrendForce said. Demand from Chinese CSPs will steadily grow, and the release of AMD's Genoa processor platform will boost enterprise SSD shipments, though suppliers have yet to recover pricing bargaining power.
As for NAND flash wafers, contract prices may stay mostly flat in the second quarter, according to TrendForce. Memory module houses' inventories have been returned to normal. Module houses are steadily purchasing more components and stockpiling low-cost inventory, anticipating a recovery in demand for SSDs, memory cards, flash disks and other products in the second half of this year. Meanwhile, NAND flash chipmakers are limiting bit production by delaying technology transitions and decreasing wafer starts.