Suppliers of probe cards, test sockets, and other IC test interface solutions are gearing up for a boom in 3nm chip demand in 2024 and 2025.
TSMC recently announced that it has begun mass production of 3nm chips and is optimistic that revenue from the first year of mass production will surpass that of the first year of the 5nm generation.
Those familiar with IC packaging and testing supply chain companies are optimistic that 3nm mass production will drive demand for high-end testing.
Testing machines for 3nm chips will require upgrades to more exact probe cards and final test (FT) sockets, which will give key test fixtures the opportunity to upgrade, sources said.
Since Apple is only in the early stages of introducing 3nm chips, sources expect the biggest opportunities will appear around 2024-2025.
Major OSATs such as King Yuan Electronics (KYEC), Sigurd Microelectronics, and ASE Technology are expected to benefit from the increasing complexity of chip designs.
TSMC's 3nm node uses its mature FinFET process. The changes are expected to be minor for backend packaging vendors, with sources noting that Taiwan-based OSATs will be able to provide seamless support; however, the industry will have to monitor the willingness of tier-1 IC design customers to use the 3nm process.
Apple is reportedly the customer for TSMC's first wave of 3nm manufacturing. Qualcomm and MediaTek are evaluating whether to follow up with flagship AP launches. The launch schedule will be based on the market recovery.
Despite sluggishness in the mobile phone market, sources predict that recovery will gradually take place after the second half of 2023.
Industry players expect that CPUs, GPUs, network chips, and high-performance computing (HPC) chips from AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom will catch up to 3nm in 2024 at the earliest.
It has been reported that international chip customers are already working with test interface companies Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (CHPT), WinWay Technology, and MPI on layouts for 3nm-related probe cards and IC sockets.
Sources noted that Nvidia has yet to follow up on 3nm wafer start plans and is still in negotiations. MediaTek is also still evaluating the market situation and is unlikely to roll out plans in the short term.
Article translated by Eifeh Strom
