DRAMeXchange: DRAM bearish

DRAMeXchange is maintaining a bearish view on DRAM spot and contract prices.

From November 16-23, DRAM trading in the spot market remained sluggish, and few transactions were made. Distributors and traders in China were hesitant to buy chips at the current price level, and module makers in the US lowered their target price each day.

Average prices for mainstream 256Mbit (32Mbit×8) DDR400 chips dropped to US$4.03 from US$4.29. Contract prices for the second half of November dropped 1.5-2.5%, reflecting the softening spot price.

DRAMeXchange expects both spot and contract prices will continue to head south in December. Although chipmakers will try to ship more chips to boost their year-end sales, demand from PC OEMs will see a seasonal drop, DRAMeXchange believes.

SDRAM

For SDRAM, demand was low in the spot market, but sellers tried to keep prices from falling. However, some traders have sold 64Mbit (4Mbit×16) SDRAM below US$1.0 over the past two days. DRAMeXchange believes this indicates that they were trying to cash their inventory before prices drop further.

DRAMeXchange projects the average price of 64Mbit (4Mbit×16) SDRAM will drop further in the short term since so far there is no unexpected demand that might consume excess inventory.

NAND flash

Prices for 4Gbit chips increased to US$38.02 from US$36.52 last week because demand was strong, but only a few firms have the technology to produce this type of chip. Prices for other smaller-density chips were stable last week but may begin to see a drop this week because it is likely supply may increase.

Source: DRAMeXchange, compiled by DigiTimes, November 2004.

Source: DRAMeXchange, compiled by DigiTimes, November 2004.

Article translated by Jack Lu and edited by Jack Lu