No one could do better than TSMC when it comes to predicting the possible size of next year's 5G smartphone market, as the top foundry house can rely on order visibility from chip clients to support its estimation. Now some industry sources have cited TSMC's internal estimates as expecting global 5G smartphone shipments to approach 300 million units next year. TSMC has been runing at full capacity at its 7nm processes, thanks to demand from the 5G sector, and capacity supply for other nodes has also been running tight. And some memory device vendors have asked their controller suppliers to build up inventory in advance to avoid production jams at TSMC. Chip vendors looking for advanced node manufacturing support could turn to Samsung Foundry, which is reportedly keen to build up its EUV production capacity.TSMC more optimistic than others about 5G phone shipments in 2020: Global shipments of 5G phones could approach 300 million units in 2020, much higher than most market observers expect, according to industry sources, citing an internal estimate at TSMC.Memory controller suppliers urged to build up inventory in advance: Judging from TSMC's rising capacity utilization rates, downstream memory device vendors have asked their controller suppliers to build up their inventory in advance, according to industry sources.Samsung reportedly places additional EUV equipment orders: Samsung Electronics has reportedly placed additional EUV equipment orders for its foundry operations.

Strong demand from the 5G sector is apparently not the only factor driving TSMC's sales growth. The foundry house is gaining growth momentum from better-than-expected sales of Apple's iPhone 11 series for fourth-quarter 2019, and first-quarter 2020. But the semiconductor industry is definitely relying on 5G applications to fuel its next wave of growth. And smartphone vendors are rushing to release 5G devices to gain a head start in the market, with Chinese brands Oppo and Vivo said to be rolling out their 5G phones ahead of schedule.TSMC sales outlook brightens: Sales of the iPhone 11 series have been better-than-expected, brightening the outlook for TSMC's sales performance in the following quarters, according to market observers.Taiwan chipmaking industry gearing up for next stage growth: Taiwan's chipmaking industry, led by TSMC, is gearing up to enter its next stage of growth as chip demand for 5G applications is set to start ramping up substantially next year, according to industry observers.Oppo, Vivo to roll out 5G phones ahead of schedule: China-based handset vendors Oppo and Vivo both are reportedly accelerating the developments of 5G smartphones and are expected to roll out their respective 5G phones at the end of 2019 or in early 2020, which will be about 2-3 months ahead of schedule, according to sources from Taiwan's IC supply chain.

TSMC is expected to report record sales for 2019, driven by strong demand for its advanced manufacturing processes. Its 7nm production capacity has been fully occupied, thanks to robust orders from clients eyeing the strong growth of the 5G market. Less advanced processes, including the 16nm node, have also seen tight capacity, with delivery lead time extended. The foundry house is likely to see even stronger revenue growth in 2020. Packaging firm ASE Technology will also see strong growth momentum in 2020 coming from the 5G sector. In Taiwan, the government is ready to auction off its 5G spectrum to telecom operators in December, but it has yet to decide whether a dedicated frequency band should be reserved for other private enterprises or entities to implement their respective 5G vertical applications.TSMC 16nm production lead time stretched: TSMC has already seen its 16nm chip supply fall short of demand, with longer delivery lead times, according to sources at IC design service companies.ASE Technology to see growth momentum carry into 2020: ASE Technology is expected to see its revenues grow quarter by quarter into 2020 thanks to strong packaging demand from major clients including Apple, Huawei's HiSilicon, MediaTek and Qualcomm to support mass production of their new offerings, according to industry sources.Taiwan to auction off 5G spectrum in December: Taiwan's government will start the bidding process for the release of related frequency bands to telecom operators for 5G services on December 10, and the auctions would likely to be carried out without plans to reserve a dedicated frequency band to be available for other private enterprises or entities to implement their respective 5G vertical applications, according to government sources.

The establishment of a charging station standard is necessary for a market to see broader adoption of electric cars, according to Jacques Borremans, head of Charging Interface Initiative (CharIN) Asia.He noted that without a finalized standard, Taiwan will continue to see stagnant acceptance of electric cars.Prior to 2017, overall installment of electric car charging stations in South Korea had had difficulties surpassing 500 units, but the number went up to more than 1,500 units in 2017, and has been growing rapidly since the government adopted CCS1 as the standard in 2016.Borremans pointed out that people show more confident in buying electric cars after seeing the broad installation of charging stations. Citing South Korean government data, he noted that the number of electric cars registered in the country was 10,855 units at the end of 2016, and went up to 25,108 in 2017 and 55,756 in 2018.At the moment, Taiwan still does not yet have a standard for electric car charging stations and most charging stations in Taiwan are equipped with multiple charging adapters, which significantly increase the costs for establishment.The availability of charging stations is crucial to the electric car market.Photo: Digitimes file photo

Notebook ODMs have again been hit by Intel CPU shortages. But Bob Swan, visiting Taiwan for the first time as Intel's CEO, said his company is expanding production capacity, particularly for 14nm processors. Swan noted that Taiwan has played a critical role in helping Intel go through 2019, a year considered a difficult one for semiconductors. And indeed, Taiwan's semiconductor sector has been spending more on chipmaking equipment purchases this year, despite the US-China trade war, which has been sending manufacturers moving their production lines out of the "world's factory." Now Google is having its manufacturing partners set up production lines in Thailand and Vietnam.Intel expanding chip output: Q&A with company CEO Bob Swan: Intel will be gradually expanding its foundry production capacity, particularly for 14nm process this year, according to company CEO Bob Swan. Swan and other Intel executives arrived in Taiwan earlier this week meeting with local partners and suppliers.Taiwan sees significant rise in chipmaking equipment imports: Taiwan's imports of semiconductor equipment shot up 65.1% on year to US$2.5 billion in September and surged 32.2% to US$15.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2019, according to customs statistics.Google suppliers to relocate production to Thailand, Vietnam: Google has decided to choose Thailand as the new production base for its Google Home smart speaker with Quanta Computer remaining its manufacturer, and the Internet service giant is now reportedly considering moving the production of its Chromebooks to Thailand and Vietnam to avoid the US tariff, according to sources from the upstream supply chain.

Texas Instruments is revamping the way of selling its products, relying less on distributors. TI earlier this month decided to terminate Avnet's rights to distributing its products starting 2021, and Taiwan-based WPG and WT Micro have just disclosed their distribution partnerships with the US client will also end at the same time. Meanwhile, Apple stands a good chance of leapfrogging Huawei to second place in global handset vendors rankings in fourth-quarter 2019, thanks to significant sales for the iPhone 11 series.WPG, WT Micro to discontinue sale of TI products: Taiwan-based IC distributors WPG Holdings and WT Microelectronics have disclosed that they will discontinue their Texas Instruments (TI) chip and component offerings starting from 2021 after the US firm terminates their distribution rights.Apple likely to outrace Huawei in smartphone shipments in 4Q19, says sources: Buoyed by brisk sales of the iPhone 11 lineup, Apple is likely to outrace Huawei to recapture second place in the global smartphone vendor ranking in the fourth quarter of 2019 after losing out to the Chinese rival since the second quarter of 2018, according to market watchers.

Global tablet shipments are expected to slip dramatically on year in 2019 amid weakening demand for brand and education tablets. Sales of white-box models have been significantly undermined by brand-name devices, while demand for small-size white-box tablets will continue to slip in the next five years, according to Digitimes Research's 5-year forecast report on tablets.Apple's iPad series, which accounts for the largest portion of the brand-name tablet shipments, may not receive upgrades as keenly as before in the next few years, while iPads' price cuts are only having limited effect on stimulating demand, Digitimes Research noted.Global tablet shipments will see difficulties remaining at above 130 million units in 2020. After 2020, the global tablet market will become a sector of rigid demand with shipments to shrink 2-3% every year, and by 2024, it will be difficult to keep volumes above 120 million units.White-box tablet shipments will remain weak in 2020 as most makers' key products are small-size tablets that have been cannibalized by large-screen smartphones and Amazon's inexpensive tablets. Since many white-box tablet makers have started turning to manufacture non-tablet products and customized tablets, more makers are expected to quit the regular tablet business in the next few years.Shipments of tablets with above 10-inch display or using an in-cell touch solution will rise dramatically in 2020 as Apple has replaced its inexpensive 9.7-inch iPad with a new 10.2-inch one, while panels makers have been keenly promoting their in-cell touch solution with advantages in production and pricing to replace GFF one.Microsoft's Windows-based tablet shipments are expected to grow exponentially in 2019 and will see its shipment share rise to 5.2% by 2020, trailing closely behind Lenovo.

Global shipments of small- to medium-size TFT LCD panels are expected to total 1.8 billion units in 2024, representing a CAGR of minus 4.4% from the levels seen in 2019, Digitimes Research estimates.Shipments of handset panels (including LCD and OLED) - the largest segment for small- to medium-sized applications - will grow at CAGR of 0.07% during a 5-year forecast period from 2019-2014, according to Digitimes Research.But LCD handset panel shipments alone during the forecast period will show a CAGR of minus 7.2%, as shipments of AMOLED applications will continue to grow and account for 50% of global handset panel shipments in 2024.More AMOLED panel production lines at major display makers, particularly those in China, will gradually come online during 2021-2022, which in turn will result in a 10% on-year reduction in output of LCD handset panels during these two years.Digitimes Research believes that the rise of industrial control, automotive and other IoT applications in the fields including smart speakers and white household appliances will become the growth driver for small- to medium-size panel shipments at a time when the markets of a number of portable consumer electronics such as handsets, tablets, digital cameras, handheld games and portable navigation devices (PNDs) have become mature or even begun declining.

Preparations for the year-end shopping season and extra inventory build-ups at clients to avoid extra US tariffs are heaping strong pressure on notebook ODMs who are not receiving sufficient support from Intel. They thought the Intel processor shortfall had eased, only to find out that 14nm Intel CPUs are again falling short of demand. The PC CPU maket has been dominated by US suppliers, but in the mobile processor market, Taiwan-based MediaTek has a strong presence. Now China's move to reduce reliance on US supplies is giving MediaTek an even stronger role in the 5G market.Notebook ODMs scrambling to secure Intel 14nm CPUs: Notebook ODMs are scrambling to secure supply from Intel for its 14nm CPUs that have again been hit by shortages ahead of the year-end holiday season, according to industry sources.Chinese drive to de-Americanize supply chain seen as black swan for 5G chips market: China's de-Americanization campaign, a move aimed at cutting reliance on the US suppliers of crucial semiconductor components and technologies, has emerged as the largest black swan affecting the development of the 5G chips market in 2020, according to industry observers.

Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% during a 5-year forecast period from 2019~2024, driven by replacement demand for entry-level smartphones in emerging markets and commercialization of 5G networks, according to Digitimes Research.Smartphone shipments will start recovering in 2020 and forward after two consecutive years of declines in 2018-2019, with prospects to reach over 1.5 billion units in 2022 and 1.6 billion units in 2024, Digitimes Research estimates.Samsung Electronics, Apple and Huawei are poised to serve as the top-3 smartphone vendors in 2020, while Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo will rank fourth, fifth and sixth in consequent order with each posting a growth ranging from 5-9% in the year.Accumulated shipments by the top-6 vendors will grow 5.1% on year to over one billion in 2020 with their combined marker share edging up 0.6pp as compared to a year earlier.Shipments of 5G-enabled smartphones will be less than 10 million units in 2019 and will expand nearly 20-fold to 175 million units in 2020, Digitimes Research estimates.Along with the increasing penetration of 5G networks and popularity of related 5G services, prices of 5G phones will continue to decline over the forecast period and will eventually ramp up the ratio of 5G models to nearly 50% of global smartphone shipments in 2024.