Memory supply shortages and price hikes continue to impact the notebook market, prompting major non-Apple brands to accelerate shipments. This surge has helped original design manufacturers (ODMs) maintain relatively stable shipment volumes in the first quarter of 2026. ODM Inventec initially forecasted a double-digit percentage decline in shipments for the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. However, actual shipments in the first two months exceeded expectations, with the quarterly drop narrowing to single digits.
Supply chain sources noted that while notebook brand vendors are aggressively pushing shipments—potentially sustaining growth momentum into the second quarter of 2026—the outlook for the second half remains uncertain. The key variables include memory supply availability, pricing adjustments, and consumer acceptance of higher prices.
Another significant factor is Apple's timely launch of its new budget MacBook Neo priced at just US$599, below earlier estimates of US$699-749. This could boost MacBook Neo sales further, potentially squeezing Wintel-based notebook vendors' market share and affecting overall supply chain shipments.
Inventec reported February 2026 revenue of NT$50.934 billion, down 5.5% month-over-month and 17.6% year-over-year, with cumulative revenue for the first two months reaching NT$112.747 billion, up 15.62% year-over-year. The company expects server shipments in the first quarter to improve over the fourth quarter of 2025, while notebook shipments are projected to decline by a single digit quarter-over-quarter.
Originally anticipating a double-digit shipment decline in the first quarter, Inventec shipped 1.5 million notebooks in February and 3.2 million units in the first two months. The firm believes March shipments could surpass January's, possibly reaching 5 million units, which would mean only about a 5% drop compared to 5.3 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Inventec forecasts stronger notebook shipments in the second quarter of 2026 but finds it difficult to predict the second half. Supply chain insiders estimate that aggressive pull-in orders from brand vendors will keep shipments robust in the first half, but persistent memory shortages and rising product prices may dampen demand in the latter half.
Acer chairman and CEO Jason Chen recently highlighted multiple headwinds facing the PC industry in 2026, including ongoing shortages and price increases for both memory and processors expected to persist at least until midyear. He noted clear early pull-in effects as customers rush to buy before prices rise further, reflected in Acer's 40% year-over-year revenue increase in January.
However, Chen also acknowledged that these component shortages and price hikes will negatively affect overall market demand.
According to DIGITIMES Research, shipment volumes are expected to decline by single digits, but average selling price (ASP) increases should still drive total sales value growth.
Besides memory and processor constraints, Apple's introduction of the MacBook Neo is seen as a market disruptor. While the release of a budget MacBook was expected in 2026, few expected Apple to set the price as low as US$599. This move poses a strong competitive threat to the Wintel ecosystem and will likely influence supply chain shipment dynamics.
Article translated by Charlene Chen and edited by Jack Wu
