The DIGITIMES Tech Forum 2026 opened on December 3, with DIGITIMES senior analyst Benson Wu saying that the lack of breakthrough 5G applications has made operators cautious about next-generation infrastructure investment, yet Agentic AI services may become the catalyst that re-energises 6G development and drives new demand for future communications networks.
Wu said global 4G subscriptions peaked in 2025 and are now declining, while 5G adoption continues to rise. He projected that 5G could overtake 4G for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2027. By 2030, 5G users are expected to reach 5.58 billion, close to 60% of all mobile subscriptions worldwide.
Despite steady growth after more than six years of commercial deployment, the market has yet to see strong demand for applications specific to 5G.
DIGITIMES Research estimated that 5G smartphones will make up 72.3% of shipments in 2025, while 5G users will account for only 33.1% of mobile broadband subscribers, revealing a clear gap between owning a 5G device and subscribing to 5G services.
From an infrastructure standpoint, about 360 operators are expected to offer commercial 5G services in 2025, representing only 43% of all operators, showing that more than half remain hesitant about fully committing to 5G.
Non-Standalone (NSA) deployments remain the mainstream for 5G base stations, while Standalone (SA) sites will account for just 21% of deployments in the first half of 2025, underscoring operators' conservative approach and the absence of clearly differentiated 5G service models.
Given 5G's heavy investment requirements and the lack of killer-grade services, operators are also wary of 6G, with some expecting 6G will not become mainstream until around 2037.
However, the rapid rise of generative AI is expected to give 6G new momentum.
Wu noted that Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has outlined three foundations for next-generation Agentic AI: Computing, Connectivity, and Cognition. These map to native AI RAN, NTN, and ISAC in 6G architectures, meaning the motivation for 6G deployment may shift from user numbers, applications, and traffic volumes to drivers shaped entirely by generative AI.
He added that AI-driven connectivity could help operators move beyond the long-standing "dumb pipe" model and open a new era of convergence across telecoms, the internet, and broadcasting networks (IPTV). The Fixed-Mobile-Satellite Convergence (FMSC) model could also enable operators to capture a wider range of AI-powered service opportunities.
Article translated by Levi Li and edited by Jack Wu
