Analyses diverge on how well the overall sales for the iPhone 15 series will perform this year. Due to the unexpectedly high order amount and the fact that the series is still in the initial stages of mass production, it is still too early to reach a conclusion, say industry sources. Potential supply chain issues, restrictions from the Chinese government, and competition from Huawei could still steer the sales of the iPhone 15 series in different directions.
The priority at present is to fulfill existing pre-orders. A clearer picture will emerge in late October once the initial wave of pre-orders has been satisfied. Industry sources speculate that the current delay could be due to either poor coordination in the supply chain or simply the overwhelming initial order numbers. Judging from precedents, overall supply and demand balance will stabilize in October, offering better visibility into future orders. However, any failure to normalize shipment time in November could signal yet-to-emerge bottlenecks in the supply chain.
With the introduction of USB Type-C and a titanium metal shell for high-end models, some analysts have revised their shipment forecasts for the second half of this year upward, to 80–85 million units. Nevertheless, potential headwinds exist. Recent restrictions in China on iPhone usage, sluggish end-market recovery, and inflation give rise to a lower projection of shipments, at 70–75 million units for the second half of this year.
Foxconn Chairman Young Liu recently visited the company's Zhengzhou factory in China to ensure smooth shipment operations. Although some models still require longer shipping times, the overall shipment for 2023 has been smoother compared to 2021 and 2022.
Despite initial criticisms for perceived lack of innovation, Apple's iPhone 15 series has once again stirred up significant demand. Orders for premium models in the US are backlogged by over four weeks, while Taiwan's waiting list stretches into early November.
Potential headwinds
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Chinese government and state-owned enterprise employees may be barred from using iPhones and other foreign brands. However, this has not been officially confirmed and Apple's official site in China and JD.com have performed well in initial sales. Hence, whether Huawei's new high-end cell phones will impact the sales of the iPhone 15 series in China is still uncertain, especially for the higher-end models.
Apple to capture the Indian market with its entry-level models
Industry sources also mentioned that for the first time, the iPhone 15 is being simultaneously produced in India, which could have a direct effect on its overall performance. To capture the vast Indian market, Apple has been working with Foxconn and other assemblers to set up production lines in India, already moving to the shipping stage.
Earlier reports indicated that Foxconn secured over 50% of the orders for entry-level iPhone 15 models. Although these models are typically not the best sellers, they are particularly well-suited for the Indian market. The allocation of orders and the additional production lines in India demonstrate Apple's strategic focus on this market.
