A credit crunch that may stall the fund-raising plans of polysilicon makers, as well as changes in incentive programs for the installation of solar energy systems, will cause uncertainties in the solar industry in 2009, said Simon Tsuo, chairman of Motech Industries, during a Digitimes 10th year anniversary event.
Rapid growth in the solar industry has drawn more new entrants, which will increase difficulties to raise funds in 2008, stated Tsuo. If players in the polysilicon segment are unable to have their output available by 2011, their competitiveness will be exposed to more pressures. Solar cell makers, therefore, need to first ensure that material supply can be guaranteed by 2011 before inking new material contracts, Tsuo stressed.
Despite there being more than 30 new polysilicon makers in China, very few of them have actual output, Tsuo noted. Since many of these suppliers have secured contracts with solar cell makers and are scheduled to start shipments in 2009, any unexpected schedule delay will severely affect global polysilicon production value, he said. As solar cell makers have to pay a deposit for material supply, the delay will also affect their funding operations, he noted.
Not only material supply but also demand is subject to changes, Tsuo said. As incentive programs in Spain for solar system installation is about to expire in September and with Germany reportedly to cut its incentive rate sharply in 2009, demand will be hard to foretell in 2009. In the US market, though stable growth is maintained, whether there will be a big demand leap or not in 2009 is still hard to predict, Tsuo said. For solar cell makers, how orders distribute in 2009 will be a key indicator for deployment, he added.
The thin-film solar cell segment will also affect the solar market in 2009, Tsuo noted. Given that many industry players will volume produce thin-film solar cells next year, whether consumers accept this type of solar cells requires further observation, as the average power conversion rate is only 6%. Tsuo added that it seems unlikely that thin-film solar cells will achieve a conversion rate of over 10% in two years.
Article translated by Esther Lam