The humanoid robot sector in China is experiencing rapid growth in production capacity, despite unclear large-scale demand, as companies prepare for anticipated commercialization. This comes amid delays in mass production efforts by Tesla Inc. in the US, highlighting differing dynamics between global markets.
Foreign research reports reveal that Chinese humanoid robot manufacturers are aggressively scaling up domestic and international production capabilities, targeting annual outputs from 100,000 to 1 million units. However, these expansions have ignited debate over whether such moves reflect strategic confidence or an overly optimistic gamble on demand timelines.
Order uncertainties persist at Chinese firms
In early November 2024, Goldman Sachs conducted site visits to nine listed Chinese humanoid robot companies, including Tuopu, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and Shuanghuan Driveline, concluding that none had secured large-scale orders or established clear production schedules. Following the report's publication, several stocks experienced market value declines exceeding 6%, reflecting investor concerns.
In contrast, since the start of 2025, firms such as UBTech, AgiBot, and Hangzhou Unitree Robotics publicly announced orders exceeding CNY1 billion (US$141.02 million) or shipments numbering in the thousands. Market observers regarded these announcements as signals of nascent mass production capabilities. However, skepticism persists, particularly after Unitree founder Wang Xingxing's claims that orders have "exploded," which appeared at odds with Goldman Sachs' findings.
Questions over demand sustainability
Examining the nature of these announced orders highlights several issues. Data for the second half of 2025 shows that companies including UBTech, AgiBot, Unitree, and Zhifang collectively announced orders approaching CNY2 billion. UBTech's Walker S series alone accounted for orders exceeding CNY800 million.
Nonetheless, many customers behind these orders are affiliated entities such as shareholders or group companies. For example, Longcheer, an AgiBot shareholder involved since the Series B funding round, plans to deploy nearly 1,000 AgiBot robots within its production lines for PCs and tablets. Several contracts reportedly remain as framework agreements lacking definitive delivery schedules.
This tendency to recycle investments within related parties appears designed to alleviate financial burdens and accelerate technology development. While this strategy is not entirely without merit, the actual end-user demand's scale and sustainability remain uncertain.
Capacity buildup risks oversupply
Industry insiders warn that aggressive capacity expansion amid unclear market demand may result in overcapacity and fierce price competition. Despite recent increases, order volumes remain in the thousands, far smaller than the millions projected by some manufacturers.
Multiple key enterprises and potentially hundreds of suppliers are vying for limited orders estimated in the tens of thousands of units range. Some companies operate independent production lines and develop proprietary components. The influx of new entrants has intensified market competition, prompting concerns about price wars and profitability erosion.
Overall, while China's humanoid robot industry is rapidly scaling production capabilities, questions remain about the commercial readiness of the market and the authenticity of reported orders. The evolving landscape reflects the tension between ambitious supply chain expansion and prudent assessment of demand fundamentals.
Article translated by Jingyue Hsiao and edited by Jerry Chen
