As of 2013, the 10 ASEAN nations had a total of over 700 million mobile subscriptions, with the CAGR from 2003-2013 reaching 24%, and the share of the global user base rising from 4.9% to a high of 10.6%. This Digitimes Research Special Report analyzes the various mobile broadband markets in ASEAN and looks at the respective trends in 4G LTE development for those markets.
Abstract
As of 2013, the 10 ASEAN nations had a total of over 700 million mobile subscriptions, with the CAGR from 2003-2013 reaching 24%, and the share of the global user base rising from 4.9% to a high of 10.6%. This Digitimes Research Special Report analyzes the various mobile broadband markets in ASEAN and looks at the respective trends in 4G LTE development for those markets.
Table of contents
Introduction
ASEAN economic overview
Large emerging consumer markets consisting of young consumers
ASEAN achieves economic synergy
Differentiated manpower advantage
Chart 1: ASEAN economies at a glance
Analysis of current ASEAN mobile/fixed-line subscriptions and revenues status
Number of mobile subscribers grows 9-fold over 10 years
Large discrepancies exist between different nations in terms of fixed-line broadband development
Chart 2: ASEAN mobile subscriber data
Chart 3: ASEAN fixed-line broadband subscriber data
Singapore and Malaysia have limited population and their impact on increasing overall mobile service revenues is limited
75% of subscriber ARPU is below US$5
Singapore has high ARPU but lacks growth
Chart 4: ASEAN mobile subscriber ARPU data, 2010-2013
Analysis of mobile/fixed-line industry development in the various ASEAN nations
Growth markets
High-potential markets
Leapfrog markets
Closed markets
Chart 5: ASEAN mobile phones/ mobile broadband penetration rate comparison matrix, 2013
Rugged and scattered territories
Next-generation mobile network technologies undermine fixed-line resources
Penetration rates of smart mobile terminals rapidly increasing
Chart 6: ASEAN fixed line broadband penetration rate comparison matrix, 2013
Observations on the ASEAN mobile industry
Analysis of ASEAN mobile technology and 4G network development
Saturated mobile user markets
Converting from WiMAX to LTE networks
Trends in 4G LTE development
Chart 7: ASEAN markets by technology standards supported, 2013
Good coverage and transmission speeds
Good transmission speed but poor coverage
Poor transmission speeds and poor coverage
Chart 8: Southeast Asia LTE development and coverage matrix, 1Q14
Mobile markets in Singapore
Over-saturated market causing negative growth in revenues
User ARPU on the decline as bonus mobile services are practically useless
Chart 9: Singapore mobile service providers, ARPU, 1Q13-1Q14
Speeding up 3G to 4G migration
Raising capex on networks to speed up LTE upgrades
Developing All over LTE services to increase user data traffic
Chart 10: Singapore mobile service providers transitioning to 4G
Mobile markets in Malaysia
Growth in the mobile user market has reached a saturation point
Entering the explosive growth period for 3G users
Social network services and prices are driving the growth of smartphone penetration rate
Chart 11: Malaysia mobile subscriber data, 2009-2013
LTE post-paid was unpopular and low cost pre-paid plans competed for customers
LTE network coverage is not yet in place
The development positioning of LTE/WiMAX is unclear
Chart 12: Malaysia wireless broadband user data, 2013
Mobile markets in the Philippines
Developing market
SMS is an important source of revenues
Next-generation mobile broadband subscribers have become the highlight of revenues growth
Chart 13: Philippines mobile subscriber data, 2009-2013
Lack of significant speed boost
Low LTE network coverage
Chart 14: PLDT transition to next generation network facing bottlenecks
Mobile markets in Indonesia
The first phase of reform (1989-1999)
The second phase of reform (1999-2009)
Chart 15: Indonesia mobile subscriber data, 2009-2013
Profits remain high
Telecommunications market shows lack of competitiveness
Chart 16: Indonesia telco operators not riding the wave to LTE
Estimates of mobile and 3G/4G subscriptions in ASEAN
Negative growth of ASEAN mobile subscriptions in 2016
3G user numbers enter market take-off phase 4G users could reach 50 million in 2016
Chart 17: ASEAN mobile users, 2012-2016
Chart 18: ASEAN subscribers by technology, 2013-2016
Observations on the ASEAN fixed-line industry
Development of the ASEAN fixed-line broadband market
Vietnam
Thailand
Singapore
The Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
Brunei
Cambodia
Table 1: ASEAN broadband policies by country, 2008- 2014
Rapid growth in number of ASEAN fixed-line broadband subscriptions
Fixed-line broadband penetration rates grow exponentially
Chart 19: ASEAN and global fixed broadband subscribers, 2003-2013 (million)
Chart 20: ASEAN fixed broadband household penetration rate by country, 2003-2013 (million)
SWOT analysis of fixed-line broadband development in ASEAN
Priority in increasing penetration rate of fixed-line broadband subscriptions
Diverse integrated heterogeneous broadband networks
Chart 21: ASEAN broadband policy goals by country, compared with 2013 actual growth
Policy subsidies and education
Develop differentiated value-added services for fixed-line broadband
Create healthy fixed-line broadband market completion
Chart 22: Relationship between fixed-line broadband outlays and gross national income, by country, 2013
Charges unfavorable for IPTV user development
Low bandwidth affecting user experience
Lack of differentiation services
Chart 23: IPTV deployment data among broadband users by region, 2013
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Chart 24: SWOT analysis for broadband development in the ASEAN region