As the mobile communications industry advances into the 6G era, non-terrestrial networks (NTN) are becoming a pivotal area for market and technological development. Guided by standardization initiatives and roadmaps from the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), NTN seeks to transcend traditional terrestrial boundaries. This endeavor involves creating a complex, multi-layered network architecture that includes low-altitude and high-altitude platform stations (LAPS/HAPS), alongside low Earth orbit (LEO) and medium/high Earth orbit (MEO/GEO) satellites. The objective is to establish integrated communication capabilities that connect satellite, aerial, and terrestrial networks, in line with the 6G vision of achieving ubiquitous global coverage and seamless connectivity.

This report analyzes current trends in the NTN industry, concentrating on technological advancements, standards, application scenarios, and development dynamics worldwide, including specific insights into Taiwanese and global supply chains. It assesses and predicts growth prospects in the global satellite equipment markets, providing an in-depth analysis of the operational dynamics among prominent international and Taiwanese suppliers. Furthermore, it offers the DIGITIMES research team valuable perspectives on future opportunities and challenges within NTN development.

The 3GPP has embraced NTN in its Release 17 and future iterations, marking a pivotal move towards integrating mobile and satellite communications. In upcoming 6G application scenarios, user terminals will be capable of simultaneously accessing multiple platforms, achieving optimal connectivity through the synergy of multi-network collaboration and AI-driven dynamic resource allocation. For telecom operators grappling with the underwhelming monetization of 5G, the introduction of 6G NTN is poised to be the critical step in advancing the fixed-mobile-satellite convergence (FMSC) operational model.

Major economies vary in their NTN development strategies. The US leverages private sector entities such as SpaceX and Amazon's Project Kuiper, supported by NASA and the Department of Defense, to spearhead the establishment of leading LEO constellations and innovative business models. Europe, on the other hand, prioritizes strategic autonomy and technological security through policy-driven funding while maintaining a cautious stance. China adopts a top-down, policy-driven approach, advancing the Guowang and Spacesail constellations. This development is intertwined with the Belt and Road Initiative to bolster geopolitical influence via satellite communications. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea address market size constraints by concentrating on HAPS and specialized vertical applications. These varied strategies highlight the distinctive policy orientations and industrial strengths of each region.

As to industrial competitiveness, the US leads in rocket launches, LEO satellite constellations, and chip design. Europe emphasizes system integration and international collaboration. China is swiftly advancing with a comprehensive localized supply chain backed by robust policy support. Taiwan, while still developing, shows promise in component manufacturing, communication chips, and testing. Establishing regional testing centers and drawing private investment could position Taiwan strategically in the Asia-Pacific market.

In 2024, the global satellite market revenue reached US$293 billion, with ground equipment contributing the most at 53%, followed by satellite service revenue at 37%. The NTN supply chain will span various segments, such as satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, communication modules, baseband chips, antenna design, ground gateways, and operational services, all of which offer promising growth prospects.

The satellite and communication industry faces a dynamic future characterized by both opportunities and challenges. High operating costs, slow international spectrum coordination, increased geopolitical competition, and a shortage of successful, replicable business models are significant hurdles. Despite these challenges, NTN are poised to achieve cross-domain integration, elevating communication services. Taiwan can become a key player in the global space communication supply chain by leveraging its expertise in satellite components, communication chips, and system integration, supported by strong policies and international cooperation.