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NAND to surpass DRAM in sales in 2014, says analyst
Josephine Lien, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 18 October 2011]

The NAND flash market is expected to expand over the next several years but the DRAM market will shrink. The former will surpass the latter in revenues in 2014, said Andrew Norwood, an analyst with Gartner, during a press conference in Taipei on October 17.

In terms of bit shipments, NAND flash is likely to outperform DRAM in 2016, Norwood indicated.

Global revenues for DRAM will decrease at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% from 2010 to 2015, Norwood estimated. Slowing PC sales are considered the main cause behind the shrinking market, Norwood added.

In constrast, sales for NAND flash will be driven by growing demand for mobile and portable electronics devices such as smartphones, tablet PCs and SSDs, Norwood said.

In 2011, DRAM sales are projected to decline by 26.6% from 2010 to US$29.0 billion, whereas those for NAND flash will grow 20.6% on year to US$24.8 billion, according to Norwood.

Samsung Electronics, Toshiba, Micron Technology and Hynix Semiconductor will remain the major NAND flash suppliers over the next few years, said Norwood, adding that Korean vendors will continue to dominate the DRAM market.

Gartner: Global sales for DRAM and NAND flash, 2010-2015

Source: Gartner, compiled by Digitimes, October 2011

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