This year Computex Taipei 2008 was abuzz with discussions about transitions in the market from conventional hard-disk drives (HDD) to solid-state drives (SSD), with players in the upstream and downstream market segments all having an opinion about how quickly signifigacant SSD penetrataiton will occur.
But there was consensus on some issues, such as that meaningful SSD penetration is most likely to take place in two segments on the opposite side of the market - in high-end enterprise servers and the low-cost notebooks.
Memory module makers: Opportunities from PCIe and embedded SSD
The consensus in the memory module industry is that the controller space is the area to watch, as the controller plays a critical role in SSD performance, and its influence on performance and stability will grow as NAND flash makers rapidly progress to even more advanced geometries.
Ray Chu, general manager at Transcend Information MBU, emphasized that the SSD penetration trend in consumer notebooks is an assured fact, as the price premium of SSDs over HDDs will eventually narrow due to the steady geometry advancement among chipmakers. At some point, the argument about cost for per Gb of data between SSD and HDD will no longer exist, he noted
However, the cost argument is still an issue at this point, though NAND flash fabricated on 40nm-class technology will deliver a relatively strong cost advantage over flash produced on other geometries, argued Kingmax Digital president Lawrence Chang. By reviewing leading NAND flash players' production roadmaps, the NAND flash transition from 50nm-class to 40nm-class process nodes is currently indeed taking place, Chang pointed out.
But cost should not be the only concern when considering SSD applications, the memory module makers noted. Numerous memory module makers have already been able to tap the SSD market by rolling out different form factors, with Chang commenting that one of the first area they are seeing significant business potential is for SSDs using a PCI Express (PCIe) interface, as this type of SSD could be easily plugged in notebooks without any system upgrade requirements.
While consumers are still confused about the actual benefits of SSDs, or are discouraged by their high average selling prices (ASPs), SSDs using a PCIe interface will be the first SSD type to gain relatively good penetration in the channel, Chang said. He expects demand for PCIe SSD in the channel to start picking up from the second half of 2008.
Regarding form factor, Transcend's Chu argued that there is no "standard" type of SSD, despite what most consumers may think. An SSD actually has no limitations in terms of form factor, as it is simply a way of presenting a combined form of NAND flash chips, controllers and a printed circuit board (PCB), he explained. One potential target market for suppliers is the mobile market, where players can take advantage of devices that have flash memory and a contoller bundled together, with the solution being embedded into products such as handses, he noted

Engineering sample of a USB card SSD powered by a Marvell controller
Photo: Esther Lam, Digitimes, June 2008
Another opportunity in the embedded space is the fact that solutions will be tailored to the application. Speaking from the perspective of someone involved in the memory module industry, Kingmax's Chang admitted that the entry barrier into the SSD market for module makers is low, but because embedded solutions will require high levels of customization, margins can be maintained despite the competition.
Recalling discussions with customers, he added that there are indeed many customers approaching the company for embedded SSDs for use in industrial applications such as ATM machines, point-of-sales (POS), and other applicaitons.

SSD in PCIe card form can be easily plugged into a desktop PC system providing secondary cache memory
Photo: Esther Lam, Digitimes, June 2008
Controller players from the HDD space
While the fast transition to more advanced process nodes has helped shrink the costs of SSDs, it has increased the challenges for controller designers and flash makers alike, as stable performance needs to be guaranteed in the storage market.
Marvell, which recently announced the official extension of its controller business from the HDD space to the SSD space, noted that controller design is never easy but that affords a company such as Marvell increased opporutinites in the SSD space, according to vice president of manufacturing operations Roawen Chen. While the controller market seems to be dominated by numerous Taiwan-based controller IC design houses, Chen highlighted there are fundamental difference between Marvell and these companies.
Chen emphasized that Taiwan-based controller companies have historically focused on flash devices such as USB drives, while Marvell is coming from the HDD space. Chen pointed out that consumers usually do not regard USB drives as an ideal storage device for their valued data – they prefer to store such data on a HDD. LSI shared a similar viewpoint, with company CEO Abhi Talwalkar indicating that he believes that controller companies already involved in the HDD space have the expertise and combination of experience and rich intellectual property (IP) portfolios needed to provide the stability in SSD devices that users will demand.
Both Marvell and LSI also identified the high-end storage market as a market segment that will deliver relatively strong business potential. Chen indicated that Marvell has a very clear strategy for its initial SSD deployment, i.e. low-cost PCs and enterprise, whereas LSI's Talwalkar also regarded enterprise as a key market segment because of the I/O advantages of SSDs. When confronted with questions about the endurance and reliability of SSDs compared to HDDs, Chen indicated that in the enterprise, cost will not be an issue. If lifespan of the device is something that needs to be addressed, the enterprise will simply purchase more SSDs to replace unusable devices. Instead, it will be performance that will be the critical factor in determing success in the enterprise.
Challenges for controller designers
Phison Electronics, which already accounts for more than one-third of the controller market for USB drives and supplies controllers for the SSDs used in Asustek Computer's Eee PC and Intel's Classmate PC, stated it sees growing opportunities for SSDs in the market due to the accelerated migration to more advanced process nodes by flash makers. But Phison senior project manager Ekron Hsu, also pointed out that controller designers also face increased challenges..
NAND flash becomes more difficult to design as it advances to next-generation process nodes, and that makes for more complicated controller designs for IC design houses, Hsu said. In addition, despite different memory makers using different process technologies, controller IC design houses are required t o design products that are compatible for all available NAND flash chips. When NAND flash makers are forced to speed up their advancement in terms of technology, it is difficult for controller IC design houses to keep pace. Therefore, it is not surprising to see more ties between NAND flash makers and controller IC designers, he noted.
For NAND flash makers, the strengthened consolidation between controller IC design houses and NAND flash makers help them to shorten product development cycle and focus on new feature and technology introduction, Hsu said. This is because NAND flash players do not have to worry about compatibility issue with host devices when designing new features, as controller IC design houses will have to deal with that.




