Supply chain
Global smartphone shipments to grow at a CAGR 3.8% in 2019-2024, Digitimes Research says
Ashley Huang and Luke Lin, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei

Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% during a 5-year forecast period from 2019~2024, driven by replacement demand for entry-level smartphones in emerging markets and commercialization of 5G networks, according to Digitimes Research.

Smartphone shipments will start recovering in 2020 and forward after two consecutive years of declines in 2018-2019, with prospects to reach over 1.5 billion units in 2022 and 1.6 billion units in 2024, Digitimes Research estimates.

Samsung Electronics, Apple and Huawei are poised to serve as the top-3 smartphone vendors in 2020, while Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo will rank fourth, fifth and sixth in consequent order with each posting a growth ranging from 5-9% in the year.

Accumulated shipments by the top-6 vendors will grow 5.1% on year to over one billion in 2020 with their combined marker share edging up 0.6pp as compared to a year earlier.

Shipments of 5G-enabled smartphones will be less than 10 million units in 2019 and will expand nearly 20-fold to 175 million units in 2020, Digitimes Research estimates.

Along with the increasing penetration of 5G networks and popularity of related 5G services, prices of 5G phones will continue to decline over the forecast period and will eventually ramp up the ratio of 5G models to nearly 50% of global smartphone shipments in 2024.

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