TD-LTE market developments and forecast, 2014-2016

TD-LTE has become the mainstream global choice for the construction of 4G asymmetric frequency spectrum networks, with the GSA calculating that commercial TD-LTE services were already in operation by 21 carriers in 17 countries worldwide as of the third quarter of 2013. This Digitimes Research Special Report examines the current global status of TD-LTE, and forecasts developments in the TD-LTE supply chain in China and worldwide through 2016.

• Global development of TD-LTE networks

• Current global development of commercial TD-LTE networks

• Thriving growth of TD-LTE in emerging markets

• Dual-mode networks are preferred option in mature telecom markets

• Asia Pacific region and Europe key regions for TD-LTE development

• Chart 1: Global distribution of commercial TD-LTE networks as of 3Q13

• TD-LTE user market highly concentrated, with China's share of user numbers predicted to surpass 60% by 2016

• TD-LTE used to improve fixed-network service quality

• Regional hotspot services to reduce data traffic congestion

• WiMAX carriers in transition

• Chart 2: Distribution of TD-LTE users in 2Q13, and TD-LTE user number forecasts for 2012-2016

• TD-LTE achieves a large-scale user base (2014)

• TD-LTE user numbers enter a period of rapid growth (2015)

• Global TD-LTE user numbers surpass 100 million (2016)

• 70% of TD-LTE users will be covered by 2.6GHz services by 2016, with the use of 3.5GHz set to rise

• Chart 3: Frequency band usage for commercial TD-LTE networks worldwide, 3Q13

• Chart 4: Global TD-LTE user market by frequency band, 2012-2016 (m users)

• Evolution of TD-LTE technology

• Table 1: Versions and publication years for 3GPP's main standards

• Carrier aggregation

• Chart 5: Features and benefits of carrier aggregation

• MIMO (Multiple Input and Multiple Output)

• Chart 6: LTE-Advanced expands number of uplink and downlink antennae

• Coordinated multipoint Tx/Rx (CoMP)

• Chart 7: Technical features of CoMP

• LTE Direct

• Chart 8: Features of LTE Direct

• State of development for subsequent standards

• Mobile broadband in China

• Base station coverage is increasing

• Number of TD-SCDMA devices is increasing

• Chart 9: Mobile phone user numbers in China, 2009-2015; and mobile phone Internet users/proportion in China in 2Q13

• WLAN helps with congestion, not cash

• 3G network usage rates are poor

• Mobile application services with high data traffic need further development

• Chart 10: China mobile data traffic and revenues, by voice and data services, 1H11-1H13

• Current development and future trends for TD-LTE in China

• 2.6GHz will become the key frequency band for TD-LTE

• FD-LTE frequency band allocation takes into account strengths of each carrier

• Chart 11: China 4G LTE frequency spectrum bands and carrier usage allocation plans

• Lower LTE frequency bands prove difficult to obtain, while number of base stations continues to grow

• FD/TD-LTE hybrid networks increase construction costs for carriers

• Chart 12: FD/TD-LTE hybrid networks drive up network construction costs for China Unicom and China Telecom (m units, CNYb)

• Development of China's TD-LTE supply chain

• Telecoms carriers

• Chart 13: China Mobile's TD-LTE network is now in actual trial operation

• The TD-LTE user base begins to expand (2014)

• TD-LTE user numbers achieve steady growth (2015-2016)

• Chart 14: China TD-LTE user numbers, 2013-2016 (Millions)

• Table 2: TD-LTE user numbers for the big 3 China carriers (m users)

• Telecoms equipment manufacturers

• Device chips and modules

• Network infrastructure equipment

• Device manufacturers

• Table 3: Market presence comparison for China's major LTE base station equipment makers, 2013

• Technological difficulties of multi-mode, multi-band services

• Strategic objectives for fostering domestic tier-one manufacturers

• A cautious assessment of the "potential opportunities"

• Table 4: Overview of bidding for China Mobile's TD-LTE contracts, 2012-2013

• Chip makers

• Table 5: Development trends for the 4 types of TD-LTE chip vendor

• Market leaders

• Technical innovators

• Firms with a market share edge

• Stragglers in the marketplace

• Chart 15: Competitive positioning and development of major TD-LTE chip vendors in 2013

• Trend forecasts for the TD-LTE chip market

• Table 6: Potential applications for the two types of TD-LTE chip

• Global TD-LTE chip and device markets

• TD-LTE chip market outlook - multi-mode requirements bolster initial average prices

• Table 7: Technological and market trends for TD-LTE chips

• Definition of a TD-LTE chip

• Annual chip shipments and average prices

• Chart 16: Global TD-LTE chip market forecasts (not including handsets and tablets), 2013-2016 (k units, US$)

• Data devices will dominate the TD-LTE market, while development will lag 1.5 years behind FD-LTE

• Development of TD-LTE smartphones lags behind

• Multi-mode, multi-band standards create challenges and changes in the industry ecosystem

• Chart 17: Breakdown of TD-LTE device models/types, and comparison of device development phases for FD/TD-LTE

• TD-LTE data device shipments will surpass 23 million in 2016, with higher shipments and lower prices

• Device shipments

• Average selling prices for devices

• Chart 18: Global shipment/ASP forecasts for TD-LTE devices, 2013-2016