A weak memory market and US sanctions on China semiconductor producers are driving factors behind the expected 19% drop in semiconductor capital spending in 2023.

With 83% of Samsung's semiconductor sales being memory devices last year, the memory market downturn is expected to drag the company's total semiconductor sales down by 20% this year. Although Intel's semiconductor sales are forecast to be relatively flat in 2019, the company is poised to regain the number 1 semiconductor supplier ranking this year, a position it held from 1993 through 2016.

China will fill 15% of its semiconductor needs in 2020 and perhaps 20% in 2022. That's significant growth, but far from the targets of 40% in 2020 and 70% in 2022 that the China government has set.

In 2017, about two dozen acquisition agreements were reached for semiconductor companies, business units, product lines, and related assets with a combined value of $27.7 billion compared to the record-high $107.3 billion set in 2015 and the $99.8 billion total in 2016.

IC Insights has lowered its 2013 IC market growth forecast 1pp to 5%.

IC Insights forecasts that in 2017, fabless IC companies will command at least one-third (33%) of the total IC market.

After strong gains in 2010 and 2011, power transistor sales fell more than 8% in 2012 to US$12.3 billion primarily due to weak economic growth and high levels of uncertainty, which caused equipment makers to rein in semiconductor purchases, according to IC Insights.

Seven O-S-D product categories and device groups reached record-high sales in 2012 compared to 14 new records being set in 2011.

Worldwide microprocessor sales are expected to regain strength in 2013 and grow 12% to US$65.3 billion after rising just 5% in 2012 to US$58.2 billion due to weakness in standard PCs and the shaky global economy, according to IC Insights.

The communications and automotive IC markets are forecast to outpace the growth of the total IC market through 2016, according to IC Insights.

Although only 2% growth was registered in the worldwide semiconductor market in 2011, several companies posted results that were far different, according to IC Insights.

Meanwhile, the South Korean companies surpassed the Japanese companies in IC marketshare for the first time in 2011, IC Insights said in its recent report.

IC Insights forecasts 1.55 billion cellular phones will ship in 2011, a 9% increase over the 1.4 billion shipped in 2010.

The recession caused fab tool vendors to de-accelerate their investments and programs in 450mm. As a result, 450mm production has been delayed at least to 2017 or 2018, said Trevor Yancey, an analyst with IC Insights.

"Overall, the SIA forecast for 2012 looks like the "death" of the semiconductor industry, and we couldn't disagree more!" said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights. In IC Insights opinion, 2012 has tremendous upside potential for the semiconductor industry.

Samsung has seen its semiconductor revenues rise at CAGR of 13.5% from 1999-2009, while Intel's sales have increased at a CAGR of just 3.4% in the same period. Extrapolating these growth rates, Samsung would pass Intel in semiconductor sales in 2014, according to IC Insights.

IC Insights' recently updated Strategic Reviews Online database shows that most large memory and foundry companies performed extremely well in 1H10.

The US$72 billion increase in 2010 would equate to a growth rate of 30% over 2009. This 30% jump would be the sixth largest in the past 32 years and the highest since the 37% increase 10 years ago in 2000.

Toshiba, Hynix, Micron and Elpida all moved up at least one position in the top 20 list, with Elpida jumping six spots.

450mm production fabs could be pushed out to 2015 or 2016 - or two years later than some had hoped, according to analysts. And EUV may miss the insertion into the 16nm node, thereby pushing the technology out to the 13nm logic node in 2015.

Buyers can expect price erosion for NOR flash memory for the rest of the year, but prices will stabilize in 2010, according to market researcher IC Insights.

According to IC Insights' update to its 2009 forecast, released Thursday, the "perfect storm" of negative factors that have damaged business in the first half of 2009 will bring about a much more "friendly" environment for the IC industry in the second half of the year.

DRAM ASPs (average selling prices) will climb significantly in 2010 on high demand and lower supply, according to the 2009 edition of IC Insights' McClean Report, to be released next month. This jump in prices will once again give the DRAM producer renewed confidence, leading to moderate increases in DRAM spending in 2010 and big DRAM capital expenditure increases in 2011.