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Joanne Chien, DIGITIMES Research, Taipei [Friday 27 July 2012]
Global economic turmoil has seriously impacted growth in the PC market and it will remain weak (2Q-3Q) leading up to the launch of Windows 8, whose initial benefit will mainly be satisfying delayed demand from the third quarter. For the year, global shipments will reach 207 million, a growth rate of only 2.1% from 2011. Lenovo, Asustek Computer, Apple and Samsung will all achieve a strong performance to help them gain market share in the second half of the year, while HP and Dell will face a decline with Acer expected to maintain its ranking. Abstract 
Global economic turmoil has seriously impacted growth in the PC market and it will remain weak (2Q-3Q) leading up to the launch of Windows 8, whose initial benefit will mainly be satisfying delayed demand from the third quarter. For the year, global shipments will reach 207 million, a growth rate of only 2.1% from 2011. The breakdown in notebook shipments between the first and second half of the year will be in a ratio of 47:53.
Notebooks with special form factors are still waiting for a breakthrough opportunity. For example, the penetration rate of ultrabooks is estimated to account for less than 5% of global notebook shipments in the fourth quarter, while notebooks with touchscreen control as well as models with a special form factor are both expected to account for less than 1%.
Notebooks that adopt a solid state drive (SSD) will account for 7.1% of total shipments in the fourth quarter, but around 70% of those shipments will be contributed by Apple products.
In the second half of the year, among notebook ODMs, only Quanta Computer and Compal Electronics will have a strong chance to achieve further growth. In terms of brand vendors, Lenovo, Asustek Computer, Apple and Samsung will all achieve a strong performance to help them gain market share, while HP and Dell will face a decline with Acer expected to maintain its ranking.
Table of contents Introduction Chart 1: Updated definition of mobile computing device Ultrabook definition Chart 2: Ultrabook vs. ultra-like NB definition Key market influences in 2H12 Reshuffling of brand vendor ranking Global notebook shipment forecast Shipments and growth in 1H12 Chart 3: Major events affecting notebook shipments in 1H12 Chart 4: Major countries economic growth by quarter, 2012 Chart 5: Global notebook shipments and growth in 1H12 (k units) Chart 6: Global notebook shipment growth by product type, 1Q10-2Q12 Shipment outlook for 2H12 Chart 7: Major events that will affect notebook shipments in 2H12 Chart 8: Global quarterly notebook shipments, 1Q11-4Q12, (k units) Chart 9: Annual global notebook shipments, 2008-2012 (k units) Shipment proportion in 1H12 and 2H12 Chart 10: Global notebook shipment proportion by quarter, 2009-2012 Market segments Netbook shipment forecast Chart 11: Global quarterly netbook shipments, 1Q11-4Q12 (k units) Ultrabook and SSD-based MacBook shipment forecast Chart 12: Ultrabook and SSD-based MacBook shipments, (k units) Chart 13: Ultrabook share of the notebook market, 4Q11-4Q12 SSD-based notebook shipment forecast Chart 14: Outlook of SSD-based notebook shipments, 4Q11-4Q12 (units) Transformable notebook shipment forecast Chart 15: Transformable notebook shipment forecast scenerios (k units) Transformable notebook shipment structure outlook Chart 16: Transformable notebook shipment structure Touchscreen notebook shipment outlook Chart 17: Touchscreen notebook outlook, shipments and share (k units) Chart 18: Touchscreen notebook shipment structure, 3Q12-4Q12 New form factor notebook market outlook Chart 19: New form factor notebook shipments and share of overall notebook market, 2012 (k units) Outlook for top-10 notebook brands Chart 20: Top-10 notebook brands' shipments in each quarter of 2012 (k units) Chart 21: Top-10 notebook brands' market share in each quarter of 2012 Chart 22: Top-10 notebook brand quarterly shipment growth, 2012 Chart 23: Top-10 notebook brands quartely on-year shipment growth, 2012 Product strategies for major brands Ultrabook Chart 24: Brand ultrabooks' shipment forecast (k units) Chart 25: Ultrabooks quarterly proportion of notebook shipments, by brand, 2012 SSD-based notebooks Chart 26: SSD-based notebook shipments by brand, 4Q11-4Q12 (k units) Chart 27: SSD-based notebook share of notebook shipments, by vendor, 4Q11-4Q12 Transformable notebook models Table 1: Windows 8-based transformable notebook and tablet plans, by vendor, 2012 Chart 28: Notebook brands' transformable notebook shipment forecast (k units) Chart 29: Transformable notebook share of notebook shipments, by vendor 2H12 Touchscreen Chart 30: Touchscreen notebook shipment forecast, by vendor, 2H12 (k units) Chart 31: Touchscreen notebook share of total notebook shipments by vendor, 2H12 Shipments and market share by vendor, 2012 Chart 32: Notebook shipments by vendor, 2010-2012 (k units) Chart 33: Top-10 notebook vendors market share, 2010-2012 Chart 34: Top-10 notebook brands' on-year shipment growth in 2012 ODM shipment forecast Chart 35: ODM/OEM quarterly shipments, 2012 (k units) Chart 36: ODM/OEM annual shipments, 2009-2012 (k units) Table 2: Notebook vendor outsourcing volumes by ODM, 2012 (k units) Taiwan notebook industry's development forecast Chart 37: Taiwan quarterly notebook shipments and share, 4Q11-4Q12 (k units) Taiwan ODMs receive Samsung outsourcing orders Chart 38: Samsung notebook order volumes to Taiwan ODMs, 2Q12-4Q12 (k units)
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